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Roughly 31,000 BTC options expired Friday with a put-call ratio of 0.7, a maximum pain point of $61,000, and a notional value near $1.9 billion. The 0.7 ratio points to a call-skewed book, with maximum pain clustered just below recent spot action.
The ETH leg was smaller but more defensive. About 135,000 ETH contracts expired, with a put-call ratio of 1.29, a maximum pain point of $1,650, and a notional value around $230 million. A put-call ratio above 1 typically reflects hedgers paying for downside protection rather than directional bullish positioning.
What to watch
Max-pain theory suggests price gravitates toward the strike where the most contracts expire worthless. BTC at $61,000 and ETH at $1,650 sit roughly 5% and 10% below recent spot prints respectively, giving expiry mechanics a slight gravitational drag into the print. Whether that pull holds into settlement is the cleaner read than the headline notional figures.
Frequently asked questions
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What did the July 3 BTC options expiry look like?
Roughly 31,000 BTC options expired with a put-call ratio of 0.7, a maximum pain point of $61,000, and a notional value near $1.9 billion. The 0.7 ratio points to a call-skewed book.
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How did the ETH options expiry compare?
About 135,000 ETH contracts expired with a put-call ratio of 1.29, a max-pain point of $1,650, and around $230 million in notional value. The ratio above 1 indicates hedgers leaned defensive.
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What does maximum pain mean for these expiries?
Max pain is the strike price where the most options expire worthless. For this expiry it sat at $61,000 for BTC and $1,650 for ETH, both below recent spot prints.
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Why does the ETH put-call ratio matter?
A put-call ratio above 1 means more puts than calls were open. Traders were buying downside protection rather than positioning for upside, a defensive read on the ETH book.
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How could the expiry affect BTC and ETH price action?
Max-pain theory suggests price tends to gravitate toward max-pain strikes into settlement. With both books' max pain below spot, there is slight mechanical drag, though expiry effects often fade once settlement clears.
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