CryptoSlate
Anthropic-linked pre-IPO perpetuals traded $643 million across 12 crypto venues through Sept. 21, topping the $590 million recorded for all of August. About $80 million in Anthropic-linked open interest was outstanding at the September snapshot, including $31.2 million on Binance, up 88% in 30 days.
Why it matters
These cash-settled contracts let traders take positions on Anthropic’s valuation before its shares trade publicly. Binance currently marks its contract using recent trading in the derivative itself. After a listing, the exchange says it can shift the mark toward a stable third-party stock-price index, with a transition notice and a gradual adjustment rather than an automatic switch on listing day.
That convergence could change unrealized gains and losses, collateral values and liquidation thresholds for traders who keep positions open. The risk is growing with the market: combined open interest in Anthropic and OpenAI pre-IPO perpetuals exceeded $160 million on Sept. 15, compared with roughly $1 million in April.
Market impact
Anthropic confidentially filed a draft IPO in June. Reports suggested its debut could slip beyond the November US midterm elections. During a weekend of listing-timetable reports, Binance’s ANTHROPICUSDT perpetual fell 0.89% to $2,084 from $2,103; Binance said some delay appeared priced in, though that move alone cannot establish trader expectations.
SpaceX offers a precedent, not a guarantee. After its June listing, Binance transitioned its contract’s mark toward a stock index, a process the exchange said could take up to three hours. FalconX reported SpaceX perpetual open interest above $300 million before listing and a peak 11 days afterward; Binance said its average daily volume rose to about $1.6 billion from roughly $89 million after conversion. For Anthropic, the key tests will be the IPO timetable, the gap between the perpetual and listed shares, and whether pre-IPO open interest holds up through the transition.
Frequently asked questions
-
How much Anthropic-linked open interest was outstanding in September?
About $80 million was outstanding at the September snapshot. Binance accounted for $31.2 million, up 88% over 30 days.
-
How does Binance mark Anthropic's pre-IPO perpetual before shares are listed?
Binance currently derives the mark price from recent trading in the contract itself, rather than a public share-price index.
-
What could change when Anthropic lists publicly?
Binance can transition the mark toward a stable third-party stock-price index. Convergence could affect unrealized gains and losses, collateral values and liquidation thresholds.
-
What happened to Anthropic's contract during reports of an IPO delay?
Binance's ANTHROPICUSDT perpetual fell 0.89% to $2,084 from $2,103 during a weekend of timetable reports. Binance said some delay appeared priced in.
-
What does SpaceX's listing suggest about pre-IPO perpetuals?
SpaceX perpetual activity expanded after listing: Binance said average daily volume on its platform rose to about $1.6 billion from roughly $89 million before conversion. It is a precedent, not a guarantee for Anthropic.
TheBlock
WatcherGuru
CoinDesk
WuBlockchain
Lookonchain