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Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, told @elliotrades on June 12 that Bitcoin's bottom is probably around $40,000 within the next six months. Hayes disclosed he is carrying put spreads, while his long-term positions remain strictly long.
Why it matters
Hayes is a long-time bull with credibility on the structural bid for BTC, which makes the $40K floor read as a tail-risk hedge rather than a base case. A price target that far below spot is meaningful from a voice that has historically called major cycle lows.
Market impact
Put-spread positioning from a known long is the kind of disclosure that prompts traders to watch options skew and front-end futures for confirmation. A six-month horizon keeps the call squarely in the macro tape rather than the next weekly print.
Frequently asked questions
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What did Arthur Hayes say about Bitcoin's bottom?
On June 12, Hayes told @elliotrades that Bitcoin's bottom is probably around $40,000 within the next six months, while disclosing he holds put spreads alongside long-term long positions.
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Does Arthur Hayes hold put spreads or is he bearish on Bitcoin?
Hayes disclosed holding put spreads, but described his long-term positions as massive and strictly long, framing the puts as a hedge rather than a directional bet.
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Why is Hayes' $40,000 Bitcoin call notable?
Hayes is a long-time structural bull with a track record of calling major cycle lows, so a $40K floor from him reads as tail-risk hedging rather than a base-case downside target.
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What timeframe did Hayes give for a Bitcoin bottom?
Hayes pointed to a six-month horizon, putting the call in the macro tape rather than the next weekly print.
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How might the market react to Hayes disclosing put spreads?
Disclosure of put-spread positioning from a high-profile long tends to push traders to watch options skew and front-end futures for confirmation that other desks are hedging the same way.
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