Exhausted retail selling pressure, strong inflows, and expanding institutional on-ramps are combining to create asymmetric upside for bitcoin, according to a new note from Bernstein. The firm's thesis is structural, not tactical — the setup differs from prior cycles where retail momentum was the primary driver.
Bernstein's framing centres on the idea that institutional access has materially widened, meaning fresh capital can enter through regulated channels that didn't exist in previous bull runs. That changes the demand profile: less reflexive, more persistent.
The implication is a cycle that runs longer and with shallower drawdowns than historical patterns would suggest — a read that aligns with what on-chain flow data has been hinting at for several months.
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