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Binance Research flagged four Bitcoin on-chain indicators that, taken together, describe a thinner sell-side and a less speculative market than the COVID-era peak. Nearly 60% of BTC supply has not moved in over a year, exchange balances have dropped from roughly 17.6% of supply near the COVID peak to 15.0% — implying about 500,000 BTC have left exchange wallets — and SLRV (the Spent Output Profit Ratio) is sitting near historical lows, consistent with subdued speculative churn.
Why it matters
The fourth signal is the cyclical counterweight: BTC STH MVRV has crossed back above 1.0 after spending most of the period since November 2024 below that line, meaning short-term holders are sitting on unrealized profits again. None of the four reads in isolation is a directional trigger, but the structural trio — illiquid share, exchange balance, and SLRV — sets the supply backdrop the cyclical signal will play out against.
Market impact
The framing matters more than the price call. With roughly 500K BTC pulled off exchanges and the illiquid share above 60%, any near-term move is more likely to encounter selling restraint than a fresh wave of supply. A rising STH MVRV above 1.0 in that context is a profitability reset, not yet a distribution signal — the cohort historically needs a deeper move above 1.0 before it starts taking chips off the table.
Frequently asked questions
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What are the four on-chain signals Binance Research highlighted?
Illiquid supply share above 60% of BTC, exchange balances falling from ~17.6% near the COVID peak to 15.0%, SLRV near historical lows, and BTC STH MVRV back above 1.0 after months below that line.
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How much Bitcoin has left exchanges, per the report?
Binance Research said exchange balances dropped from roughly 17.6% to 15.0% of BTC supply, implying around 500,000 BTC have left exchange wallets.
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What does SLRV near historical lows imply?
SLRV — the Spent Output Profit Ratio — measures how much of the BTC moved on-chain is being sold at a profit. Lows mean fewer coins are changing hands in profit, consistent with subdued speculative churn.
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Why does STH MVRV crossing 1.0 matter?
STH MVRV above 1.0 means short-term holders are back in unrealized profit after spending most of the period since November 2024 underwater. It is a profitability reset, not yet a distribution signal.
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Is Binance Research calling for a BTC price move?
No. The report frames the four indicators as a supply-side backdrop: with ~500K BTC pulled off exchanges and the illiquid share above 60%, any near-term move is more likely to meet selling restraint than a fresh wave of supply.
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