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Bernstein analyst Gautam Chhugani said Bitcoin's roughly 54% decline from its October 2025 high near $125,000 remains far smaller than the 75% to 90% drawdowns that typically mark the end of previous cycles. The Wall Street research and brokerage firm held its $150,000 year-end BTC target intact.
Why it matters
Chhugani's framing reframes the recent slide from bear-market territory into mid-cycle stress. Past BTC cycles have bottomed with 75% to 90% peaks-to-trough drops, so a 54% pullback keeps the cycle-comparison case open for institutional allocators who anchor decisions on historical structure. Bernstein's maintained $150K target signals the firm's base case still treats the move as a correction inside a structural bull market, not a regime change.
Market impact
The caveat Bernstein flagged is the catalyst question: analysts said they will keep watching for "signs of life" in capital flows before confirming a bottom. Spot ETF inflows, stablecoin liquidity, and on-chain accumulation are the usual gatekeepers the buy-side watches for that signal. Until those flows turn, the asymmetry thesis leans on cycle math rather than confirmed inflow data.
Frequently asked questions
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What did Bernstein say about Bitcoin's drawdown?
Analyst Gautam Chhugani noted Bitcoin's roughly 54% decline from its October 2025 high near $125,000 is still shallower than the 75% to 90% drawdowns that typically mark the end of past cycles.
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What is Bernstein's year-end Bitcoin price target?
Bernstein maintained its $150,000 year-end BTC target, framing the recent slide as a mid-cycle correction rather than a regime change.
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Why is the cycle-comparison framing important for institutional investors?
Funds that anchor allocation decisions on historical cycle structure read a 54% drawdown as mid-cycle stress rather than a confirmed bear market, keeping the structural bull case open.
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What "signs of life" is Bernstein watching for?
The team flagged capital flow signals as the next confirmation: spot ETF inflows, stablecoin liquidity, and on-chain accumulation are the usual gatekeepers institutional allocators look for before a bottom can be confirmed.
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How does a 54% drawdown compare to past Bitcoin cycle bottoms?
Prior Bitcoin cycles have bottomed with 75% to 90% peaks-to-trough drops, so Bernstein's framing keeps the current pullback inside historical range rather than at a confirmed terminal low.
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