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Bitcoin Back at $77K, Vindicating 'Sell in May' Strategy

Four months of chop with no net move is not nothing, it is a positioning reset. Both sides' conviction comes out flatter than the spring highs implied, which sets the tone heading into Q4.

Bitcoin's summer round-trip is complete. The asset sat near $77,000 in early May, weathered a choppy four months of intra-quarter swings, and is back at $77,000 in early September.

For anyone who actually followed the 'sell in May and go away' adage, the trade worked exactly as the cliché promised: they exited near the May highs and returned to find the same price tag, having skipped every fakeout in between.

The cleaner read is positioning, not direction. Four months of chop without resolution tends to flatten expectations on both sides, drain leverage, and reset sentiment before the next decisive leg. Whatever BTC does next, it likely starts from a flatter expectations curve than the late-spring highs implied.

Source: [source](http://telegraph.controller.bot/files/8336652911/AgACAgIAAxkBAAJM7mqYe2N7QPRVyBdGAg0wW2xRlUU_AAKBJWsbCGDASLckgmMpdz0MAQADAgADeQADPQQ)

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Frequently asked questions

  1. Did 'sell in May' actually work for Bitcoin in 2025?

    Yes. Bitcoin was near $77,000 in early May and is back at $77,000 in early September, meaning anyone who sold in May and returned now would find roughly the same price they left behind.

  2. What was Bitcoin's price range during the summer chop?

    Bitcoin was around $77,000 in both early May and early September, with intra-quarter swings in between producing no net progress over the four-month stretch.

  3. What does four months of chop without progress signal?

    Extended chop with no net move tends to reset positioning, drain leverage, and flatten sentiment on both sides, often setting up a cleaner base before the next directional leg.

  4. Is this bullish or bearish for Bitcoin going into Q4?

    Neither, on its own. The setup is directionless: a flatter expectations curve and reset positioning heading into the back half of the year, with no implied directional bias from the round-trip itself.

  5. Why does the positioning reset matter more than the round-trip price?

    Because leverage, sentiment, and expectations accumulate during directional moves and deplete during chop. A four-month flat stretch typically leaves both bulls and bears with compressed conviction, which can amplify the next decisive move in either direction.

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