CryptoSlate
Bitcoin outperformed the S&P 500 in 10 of 18 October sessions through Oct. 26, but still fell 4.25% as the index gained 0.33%. Its average 0.71% edge on winning days was outweighed by an average 1.44% shortfall on losing days. BlackRock’s IBIT captured 96.3% of US spot Bitcoin ETF inflows since August, while rival funds saw redemptions.
Why it matters
The flow share reflects a concentrated ETF channel, not broad-based demand. From Aug. 3 through Oct. 26, IBIT took in $5.7 billion while all other funds combined added $221 million. In October, IBIT gained $866 million as rivals lost more than $1 billion, leaving the category with about $203 million in net outflows. The rising share therefore reflects redemptions elsewhere as much as buying into IBIT.
Underlying demand indicators remain soft. Stablecoin supply is $12.7 billion below its May peak, the seven-day Coinbase premium stayed negative through October, and spot cumulative volume delta stood at negative $80.5 million. Options skew rose to 10.4% from 8.9%, signaling greater demand for downside protection.
Market impact
A broader recovery would be supported by continued IBIT inflows and a return to inflows at competing ETFs. Coinbase’s cited $81,300 ETF cost basis sits below a potential $82,500 to $84,400 range, while reaching $88,000 to $95,000 would require the macro burden to ease and the dollar to soften.
If rates remain higher for longer, IBIT inflows fade and rival funds keep shedding assets, a break below $77,000 to $77,800 could expose the $73,000 to $75,000 zone. Rival-fund flows, stablecoin supply and the Coinbase premium are key measures of whether demand is broadening.
Frequently asked questions
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How did Bitcoin lose ground despite beating the S&P 500 on most October sessions?
Bitcoin outperformed in 10 of 18 sessions, but its average 1.44% shortfall on losing days was roughly twice its 0.71% average edge on winning days.
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How concentrated were US spot Bitcoin ETF flows in IBIT?
IBIT captured 96.3% of US spot Bitcoin ETF inflows since August. From Aug. 3 through Oct. 26, it added $5.7 billion while other funds combined added $221 million.
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Why does IBIT's rising share not necessarily indicate broad ETF demand?
In October, IBIT gained $866 million while rival funds lost more than $1 billion, leaving the category with about $203 million in net outflows. The higher share also reflects redemptions at competing funds.
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What indicators point to soft underlying Bitcoin demand?
Stablecoin supply is $12.7 billion below its May peak, the seven-day Coinbase premium stayed negative through October, and spot cumulative volume delta stood at negative $80.5 million.
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Which price levels could matter if Bitcoin's recovery weakens?
If IBIT inflows fade and rival funds continue losing assets, a break below $77,000 to $77,800 could expose the $73,000 to $75,000 zone.
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