Bitwise has raised its 10-year Bitcoin price forecast from $1.3 million to $1.6 million, lifting its projected compound annual return from 28.3% to 34.3%. The firm says its updated model uses the same assumptions about Bitcoin's share of potential markets, but those markets have grown: its store-of-value estimate rose from $91 trillion to $110 trillion, and its institutional investment market estimate increased from $216 trillion to $303 trillion.
Why it matters
The forecast is a long-term scenario, not a near-term price target. Bitwise's case rests on a larger addressable market and signs that institutional access and interest have continued to develop. The report points to wealth-management platforms moving toward Bitcoin, central banks and sovereign wealth funds edging closer, and declining cyclical volatility.
Bitwise also lists counterpoints: demand for store-of-value assets has primarily favored gold, ETF flows have slowed, and Bitcoin remains vulnerable to sharp drawdowns. It says institutions continued adding exposure during the recent decline and notes a higher correlation with gold and a smaller peak-to-trough loss than in prior bear markets.
Market impact
The transcript says Bitcoin fell more than 50% between October 2025 and June 2026, reaching below $59,000, before the forecast was revised upward. It also cites a 53% peak-to-trough loss and warns of short-term volatility around the US midterms. Those details underline the gap between a decade-long valuation thesis and the risk of near-term swings.
The discussion also highlights altcoin projects the presenter sees as positioned for the next phase of crypto adoption: Hyperliquid, XRP, Canton Network and Ethereum. The cited themes include institutional partnerships, stablecoin activity and tokenization, but the transcript provides no comparable price forecasts for those projects. For investors, the central question is whether expanding institutional use and addressable markets can translate into sustained Bitcoin demand despite volatility and competition from gold.
Frequently asked questions
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Why did Bitwise raise its 2035 Bitcoin forecast?
Bitwise said its store-of-value and institutional investment market estimates grew. It kept its assumed Bitcoin share of those markets unchanged.
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What annual return does Bitwise project for Bitcoin?
The revised forecast implies a projected compound annual return of 34.3%, up from 28.3% in the previous outlook.
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What risks does the Bitcoin forecast acknowledge?
The report notes that store-of-value demand has primarily gone to gold, ETF flows have slowed, and Bitcoin remains vulnerable to sharp drawdowns.
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What does the transcript say about Bitcoin's recent decline?
It says Bitcoin fell more than 50% from October 2025 to June 2026, bottoming below $59,000, and cites a 53% peak-to-trough loss.
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Which other crypto projects does the presenter highlight?
The presenter highlights Hyperliquid, XRP, Canton Network and Ethereum, citing themes including institutional partnerships, stablecoins and tokenization.
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