CryptoSlate
Bitcoin could hold a floor near $30,000 even if US spot ETF investors and corporate treasuries unwound their positions in full, CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju argues. The scenario would require reversing $56.95 billion in cumulative net inflows to US spot Bitcoin ETFs and selling the roughly 1.3 million BTC held across 180 public-company treasuries, about 6.2% of Bitcoin's maximum supply. Ju shared the call on Oct. 16 in response to Bloomberg Intelligence strategist Mike McGlone, who sees a path toward $10,000.
Why it matters
The disagreement is about which floor holds in a deep bear market. Ju's estimate is anchored in Bitcoin's market-value-to-realized-value ratio, or MVRV, which compares market capitalization with the aggregate value of coins at the prices they last moved on-chain. Realized price stood near $53,855 on Oct. 18, so a $30,000 market price would put MVRV around 0.56, close to the 0.55 reading at the January 2015 low and the 0.46 bottom of November 2011. McGlone's $10,000 target implies a ratio near 0.19, well outside any prior major bottom. Ju also pointed to investors who bought in 2019 and survived two drawdowns of roughly 75%, arguing that cohort would need to capitulate for $10,000 to print.
The institutional era adds a different risk: large holders need not lose conviction to sell. ETF redemptions convert directly into spot-market selling, and treasury firms face financing and balance-sheet pressure. Strategy alone owns 848,250 BTC, roughly 65% of the corporate total, meaning any broad retreat would be shaped heavily by one company's funding decisions.
Market impact
Signs of institutional selling have already surfaced on a small scale: US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded over $900 million in net outflows across the two weeks ending Oct. 16, per Farside Investors. Bitcoin traded near $82,000 over the weekend after slipping below $80,000 during the week's selloff, and a fall to $30,000 would erase about 63% of its value.
The near-term catalyst to watch is MSCI's new index eligibility criteria, which threaten to exclude Strategy from global benchmarks.
Frequently asked questions
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What is the CryptoQuant CEO's Bitcoin floor prediction?
Ki Young Ju argues Bitcoin would find support near $30,000 even if US spot ETF investors and corporate treasuries fully unwind their positions, based on the on-chain investor cost basis rather than institutional holdings.
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How much Bitcoin do ETFs and public companies hold?
US spot Bitcoin ETFs carry $56.95 billion in cumulative net inflows through Oct. 16, while 180 public-company treasuries hold about 1.302 million BTC, roughly 6.2% of maximum supply, worth approximately $106 billion.
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What does MVRV say about a $30,000 Bitcoin floor?
MVRV compares market capitalization with the value of coins at their last on-chain prices. At $30,000 the ratio sits near 0.56, close to the 0.55 reading at the January 2015 low, while $10,000 would imply about 0.19.
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Why does Mike McGlone forecast Bitcoin at $10,000?
The Bloomberg Intelligence strategist argues Bitcoin above $100,000, gold past $5,000, and rising bond yields could signal a broad risk-asset reversal, with support toward $10,000 especially if US equities suffer a 20% drawdown.
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What is the MSCI risk to Strategy's Bitcoin holdings?
MSCI's new index eligibility criteria threaten to exclude Strategy from global benchmarks, and a November 2025 JPMorgan scenario estimated about $2.8 billion in passive sales of its shares if it is removed. Strategy holds 848,250 BTC.
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