CryptoSlate
Bitcoin mining difficulty is projected to fall 6.5% around November 13, according to Hashrate Index's November 9 snapshot. With Bitcoin's price, block subsidy and fees held constant, the cut would raise expected daily revenue per unit of computing power by about 7%. Even so, two older S19 models would earn less than their machine electricity costs at 5 cents per kilowatt-hour.
Why it matters
Lower difficulty gives a fixed amount of computing power a greater chance of earning block rewards. The projected adjustment would lift hashprice, a measure of expected daily revenue before expenses, from $31.89 to about $34.11 per petahash per second per day under the fixed-revenue assumptions.
Bitcoin recalculates difficulty every 2,016 blocks. The timing and size of the next adjustment remain estimates and can change as more blocks arrive.
Market impact
At nominal settings, the modeled 95 TH/s and 90 TH/s S19 variants could cover electricity at up to 4.15 cents and 3.94 cents per kWh, respectively, after the projected cut. A more efficient 200 TH/s S21 would have a ceiling of 8.12 cents per kWh.
At an illustrative 8 cents per kWh, the S21 would move just above machine electricity coverage, with about 10 cents a day left before other costs. The calculations assume continuous operation and exclude expenses including cooling, pool fees, repairs and financing. Actual receipts also depend on Bitcoin's price and transaction fees.
Frequently asked questions
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When is the Bitcoin difficulty adjustment expected?
Hashrate Index's November 9 snapshot projected the adjustment around November 13. Both its timing and size can change as more blocks arrive.
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How would the projected cut affect Bitcoin hashprice?
With Bitcoin's price, block subsidy and fees unchanged, the projected cut would raise hashprice from $31.89 to about $34.11 per petahash per second per day.
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What electricity prices could the two S19 models cover after the cut?
The modeled 95 TH/s and 90 TH/s S19 variants could cover machine electricity at up to 4.15 cents and 3.94 cents per kWh, respectively.
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How does the S21 compare with the older S19 models?
The modeled 200 TH/s S21 would have an electricity-only ceiling of 8.12 cents per kWh after the projected cut, higher than either S19 variant.
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Which mining expenses are excluded from the electricity comparison?
The calculations exclude costs such as cooling, pool fees, repairs and financing. They assume continuous operation at nominal equipment settings.
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