CryptoSlate
Bitcoin’s next difficulty adjustment is projected to lift the network figure 5.68% around Oct. 16. If Bitcoin’s price, block subsidy and average fees per block remain unchanged, revenue per unit of computing power would fall 5.37%, taking hashprice from $39.77 to about $37.63 per PH/day.
Why it matters
The squeeze is most immediate for miners whose electricity costs are already close to gross mining revenue. In an illustrative case using equipment rated at 20 joules per terahash and electricity at 8 cents per kWh, power costs $38.40 per PH/s each day. At the Oct. 14 hashprice, that leaves a $1.37 cushion; after the projected retarget, revenue would be about $0.77 below the power bill.
The adjustment remains a projection. A dashboard snapshot at 07:02 UTC on Oct. 14 showed difficulty at 132.72 trillion, with 347 blocks left before the adjustment at block 971,712. Bitcoin retargets every 2,016 blocks to keep average block times near ten minutes, so the estimated Oct. 16 date and projected increase can change as blocks arrive.
Market impact
The power-only electricity ceiling for 20 J/TH equipment would fall from 8.29 to 7.84 cents per kWh under the scenario. Less efficient rigs face tighter limits: the modeled ceiling drops from 6.63 to 6.27 cents at 25 J/TH, and from 5.52 to 5.23 cents at 30 J/TH. By contrast, 15 J/TH equipment at 8 cents per kWh retains an electricity cushion.
These thresholds exclude pool fees, cooling and other site loads, repairs, overhead and financing. The next checks are the completed adjustment at block 971,712 and hashprice afterward. Higher reward value from Bitcoin’s price or fees could ease the pressure; lower value could deepen it.
Frequently asked questions
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How much could the projected difficulty adjustment reduce Bitcoin mining revenue per hash?
With Bitcoin’s price, subsidy and average fees unchanged, the projected 5.68% difficulty rise would reduce revenue per hash by 5.37%, from $39.77 to about $37.63 per PH/day.
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Why could 20 J/TH mining equipment lose money on electricity?
At 8 cents per kWh, the modeled 20 J/TH setup costs $38.40 per PH/s per day to power. Projected hashprice of about $37.63 would leave it roughly $0.77 short.
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What electricity price could 20 J/TH equipment cover after the retarget?
The modeled power-only electricity ceiling falls from 8.29 cents per kWh to 7.84 cents after the projected adjustment.
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When is the Bitcoin difficulty adjustment expected, and what could change?
The adjustment is estimated around Oct. 16 at block 971,712. The date and projected increase can shift as the remaining blocks arrive.
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What costs are excluded from the mining electricity thresholds?
The modeled ceilings cover electricity alone. They exclude pool fees, cooling and other site loads, repairs, overhead and financing.
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