CryptoSlate
Bitcoin fell 8.25% from approximately $84,134 to $77,191 between Oct. 21 and Oct. 30, even as 10-year US real Treasury yields dropped 16 basis points to 2.60%. Technology stocks also weakened, while roughly $1 billion in Bitcoin ETF outflows and leveraged liquidations added to selling pressure.
Why it matters
Lower real yields typically reduce the opportunity cost of holding Bitcoin, but that support has been outweighed by weaker risk appetite and a lack of sustained spot buying. Wintermute identified Binance's Oct. 29 security breach as the dominant crypto-specific shock behind the downturn, which triggered about $1.5 billion in liquidations. Long positions accounted for approximately 85% of the total.
Wintermute said dip buyers had relied mainly on leveraged perpetual futures rather than spot purchases. That left positions vulnerable to further liquidations as prices fell, with little evidence of fresh capital entering to underpin a durable rebound.
Market impact
US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $398.6 million in net outflows on Nov. 2, after $643.2 million left on Oct. 30. BlackRock's IBIT saw $405.3 million in withdrawals on Nov. 2, partly offset by $6.7 million of inflows into Fidelity's FBTC. Bitcoin traded near $76,861 early Tuesday, below $80,000.
Wintermute identified $76,800, near Bitcoin's 50-week moving average, as critical support. A sustained break below it would strengthen the bearish case; reclaiming $80,000 with renewed spot demand and ETF inflows would challenge the cautious outlook. US job openings data due Nov. 3 and the October employment report due Nov. 6 could move yields, but lower yields alone may not be enough if technology shares and ETF demand remain weak.
Frequently asked questions
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Why did Bitcoin fall while real Treasury yields were declining?
Technology-stock weakness, roughly $1 billion in Bitcoin ETF outflows and leveraged liquidations outweighed the usual support from falling real yields.
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What role did Binance's security breach play in the downturn?
Wintermute identified the Oct. 29 breach as the dominant crypto-specific shock behind the downturn, which triggered about $1.5 billion in liquidations.
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How large were the recent US spot Bitcoin ETF outflows?
ETFs recorded $398.6 million in net outflows on Nov. 2, following $643.2 million in outflows on Oct. 30, for approximately $1.04 billion across both sessions.
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Which Bitcoin price levels is Wintermute watching?
Wintermute identified $76,800 as critical support and $80,000 as the level Bitcoin needs to reclaim to challenge its cautious outlook.
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What would support a sustained Bitcoin recovery?
Wintermute said a sustained recovery above $80,000 would need stronger spot-market demand and renewed ETF inflows.
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