Spot bitcoin ETFs have now registered net outflows on 13 consecutive trading days, with cumulative selling reaching $4.4 billion, while a broader tally of 17 of the last 19 sessions shows institutional desks shedding close to $5.6 billion in total. $BTC has slid to roughly $61,000, dragging more than half of all coins in circulation into unrealised loss — a condition that, by the historical read, has coincided with every prior bitcoin bear-market bottom. Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) sold a token 32 BTC over the same window, a drop in the bucket against the ETF-led unwind, and the question of who is actually selling has become the dominant tape-watcher question.
Why it matters
Charles Schwab's director of research told Bloomberg that the heaviest sellers are participants who accumulated $BTC over the past 18 months and are now sitting on a cost basis well above spot. Schwab's team puts the average ETF/ETP-holder cost basis near $83,000 and an active-investor cost basis (excluding miner rewards) near $78,000 — both deep underwater after the move from the prior $126,000 high. The Schwab framework leans on energy and miner economics: the top-tier producers, running the newest fleets on the cheapest power, can still turn out bitcoin at roughly $60,000 per coin, and historically that production cost has acted as the price floor in deep bear markets.
Market impact
The technical tape lines up with the on-chain picture. $BTC has now touched the 200-week moving average, a level it has held as a floor in every prior cycle except the FTX-era washout in 2022, when price sliced through and spent months below. The dominant read is that this is how bottoms form: paper hands get flushed, long-term holders grind down their cost basis, and the market consolidates before the next leg. The downside skew from here depends on whether forced selling continues — 13 days of ETF outflows is the headline, but a sustained break and hold below the 200-week would be the first true structural break of the cycle, and a level not seen since the FTX collapse. For the institutional bid, the relevant signal isn't the headline outflow number but whether the cost-of-production band near $60K absorbs it — that is the line the rest of the cycle is being priced against.
Frequently asked questions
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How long have spot bitcoin ETFs been bleeding?
Spot bitcoin ETFs have registered net outflows on 13 consecutive trading days, with cumulative selling reaching $4.4 billion. A broader window of 17 of the last 19 trading sessions has been net negative, totalling close to $5.6 billion in institutional selling.
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How much is the average bitcoin ETF holder underwater?
Charles Schwab's research team puts the average cost basis for ETF/ETP holders at roughly $83,000 and the active-investor cost basis — excluding miner rewards — at about $78,000, both well above the recent price near $61,000.
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Why do some analysts see $60,000 as a bitcoin bottom?
Schwab's research chief argued that top-tier miners running the newest fleets on the cheapest power can produce bitcoin at roughly $60,000 per coin, and that production cost has historically acted as the price floor in deep bear markets.
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What is the 200-week moving average and why does it matter?
The 200-week moving average is a long-term trend line that has acted as a floor in every prior bitcoin bear cycle except the FTX-era washout in 2022. A sustained break below it would be the first true structural break of the current cycle.
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Did Strategy (MicroStrategy) actually sell bitcoin recently?
Strategy sold just 32 BTC — around $2.5 million — over the same window, an amount the source describes as effectively noise against the much larger ETF-led institutional outflows.
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