CoinTelegraph
Bitcoin’s median return in the 12 months after US midterm elections has been 63% since 2010, according to CryptoQuant. The reported gains were 36.8% after the 2014 midterms, 45.8% after 2018 and 80.8% after 2022.
Why it matters
The pattern offers a historical reference point, but it does not establish that elections drove Bitcoin’s gains. CryptoQuant cautions that the returns may instead reflect Bitcoin’s four-year halving cycle.
Market impact
CryptoQuant says 2026 is showing a different trend, complicating any straightforward repeat of the post-midterm pattern. The figures are historical context, not a reliable forecast of Bitcoin’s next 12 months.
Frequently asked questions
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What post-midterm Bitcoin returns does CryptoQuant cite?
CryptoQuant cites gains of 36.8% after the 2014 midterms, 45.8% after 2018 and 80.8% after 2022.
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How is the 63% post-midterm return measured?
It is the median Bitcoin return over the 12 months following US midterm elections since 2010, according to CryptoQuant.
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Does CryptoQuant attribute the gains to US elections?
No. CryptoQuant cautions that Bitcoin’s four-year halving cycle may explain the pattern rather than election results.
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Why does the halving cycle matter to this historical pattern?
CryptoQuant says the four-year halving cycle may be a stronger explanation for the post-midterm returns than the elections themselves.
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What does CryptoQuant say about Bitcoin’s 2026 trend?
CryptoQuant says 2026 is showing a different trend, which complicates using past post-midterm returns as a guide.
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