CoinDesk
Bitcoin held a tight range around $77,000 in U.S. morning action on Friday as markets absorbed a fresh stagflationary signal from the University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index. The headline gauge dropped to a record low of 44.8 from 48.2, well below the 48.2 economists had expected. The Expectations Index fell to an all-time low of 44.1, while one-year inflation expectations climbed to 4.8% from 4.5% and five-year expectations to 3.9% from 3.4%.
Why it matters
The data lands on Kevin Warsh's first day as Federal Reserve chairman — his swearing-in is scheduled for 11 am ET. President Trump appointed Warsh expecting him to lead the central bank toward interest-rate cuts, but the Iran war has pushed oil prices higher and reignited inflation that had been cooling. Rate traders are now pricing in more than a 70% chance of one or more rate hikes by the end of 2026, the opposite of the path the White House had wanted.
Market impact
Bitcoin's $77,000 pivot has held for most of the week, and Friday's session did little to break the pattern despite the macro shock. Equities shrugged off the sentiment miss — the Nasdaq traded up 0.3% and the S&P 500 up 0.4% into the three-day weekend — suggesting traders viewed the UMich print as a known quantity rather than a fresh risk event. The real test comes after Warsh takes the oath and the Fed's policy posture under new leadership starts to clarify.
Frequently asked questions
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Why is Bitcoin trading sideways near $77,000?
Bitcoin has held a tight range around $77,000 for most of the week. Friday's session stayed in the pattern even after a record-low University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment print and rising inflation expectations, suggesting traders are waiting for clarity on Fed policy under new chair Kevin Warsh.
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What did the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment report show?
The headline gauge fell to a record low 44.8 from 48.2, below the 48.2 economists had forecast. The Expectations Index fell to an all-time low 44.1, one-year inflation expectations rose to 4.8% from 4.5%, and five-year expectations climbed to 3.9% from 3.4%.
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Who is Kevin Warsh and when does he become Fed chair?
Kevin Warsh is the new Federal Reserve chairman appointed by President Trump. His swearing-in is scheduled for 11 am ET on Friday — his first day in the role coincides with the latest stagflationary macro print.
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Are traders expecting rate hikes or rate cuts in 2026?
Rate traders are now pricing in more than a 70% chance of one or more rate hikes by the end of 2026 — the opposite of the rate-cut path President Trump expected Warsh to deliver.
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How did U.S. equities react to the macro data?
U.S. stocks posted modest gains into the three-day weekend, with the Nasdaq up 0.3% and the S&P 500 up 0.4%, suggesting the sentiment miss was largely priced in and traders are waiting on Fed policy clarity under Warsh.
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