TheBlock
Bitcoin traded around $78,000 on Tuesday, holding most of its 25% August rally despite a jump in oil prices and renewed expectations that the Federal Reserve could hike rates this month. The August print was Bitcoin's best since 2017 and its strongest month overall since November 2024, according to LMAX Group market strategist Joel Kruger. BTC briefly moved above $81,000 last week before slipping back below $78,000 following Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole remarks, but finished the week almost flat after a 23% gain the week before.
Why it matters
The cross-asset backdrop stacked against Bitcoin in August and the rally held anyway. Brent crude pushed above $90 on renewed U.S.-Iran tension, Warsh's Jackson Hole speech lifted September hike odds on the CME, the dollar firmed, and chip stocks sold off. Crypto equities caught the same downdraft. None of it broke Bitcoin's structure. LMAX's Kruger called the resilience "notable given the increasingly difficult cross-asset backdrop," with higher bond yields, a stronger dollar, and geopolitical stress all acting as headwinds for risk assets.
Spot ETFs reinforced the bid. U.S. spot bitcoin funds booked nine straight positive sessions totalling $924 million before a $202 million outflow on Friday, and Wintermute OTC trader Jasper De Maere flagged under-allocated investors as the marginal buyer on dips. That is the kind of structural flow that turns a rate-hike scare into consolidation rather than a drawdown.
Market impact
Traders are mapping levels into the September 16 FOMC. Wintermute sees support at $75,000 and $72,000, with resistance around $82,000. LMAX's Kruger framed $80,000 to $82,820 as the band Bitcoin needs to clear, arguing a sustained break above that range could reopen a move back above $100,000.
Friday's U.S. nonfarm payrolls print is the next macro hinge. Economists expect a modest 55,000 jobs print and an unemployment rate steady at 4.1%, per Capital.com senior analyst Kyle Rodda.
Frequently asked questions
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Why did Bitcoin hold gains in August despite oil and Fed headwinds?
BTC absorbed a stack of risk-asset headwinds: Brent crude above $90 on U.S.-Iran tension, hawkish Jackson Hole remarks from Fed Chair Warsh, a firmer dollar, and a chip-stock selloff. LMAX's Joel Kruger called the cross-asset resilience notable, with under-allocated investors continuing to buy dips.
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How much did spot bitcoin ETFs add in August?
U.S. spot bitcoin funds booked $924 million in net inflows over nine straight positive sessions before a $202 million outflow on Friday, per The Block reporting. The flow profile signalled structural demand rather than short-term reactions.
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What levels are traders watching into the September FOMC?
Wintermute sees support at $75,000 and $72,000 with resistance around $82,000. LMAX's Kruger framed $80,000 to $82,820 as the band BTC needs to clear, arguing a sustained break could reopen a path back above $100,000.
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Why does Friday's U.S. jobs report matter for Bitcoin?
Economists expect 55,000 jobs added in August with unemployment steady at 4.1%. Capital.com's Kyle Rodda argued a weaker print could cast doubt on whether the Fed has the appetite to hike into a softening labour market, unwinding part of Warsh's Jackson Hole hawkishness.
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How does this Bitcoin rally compare to past ones?
August's 25% gain was Bitcoin's best August since 2017 and its strongest month overall since November 2024, per LMAX Group market strategist Joel Kruger.
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