CoinDesk
Bitcoin's MVRV Z-Score has dropped to 0.24, placing it just above the historically significant "green zone" — the accumulation band near and below zero that has marked the lowest point of every major BTC bear market on record. The metric compares bitcoin's live market price against its realized value, the average price of every coin since its last on-chain transaction, a figure widely treated as fair value.
Why it matters
Every major cycle bottom in bitcoin's history has coincided with the Z-Score touching or briefly dipping below zero. It happened in 2011-2012, again in 2014, in late 2018, and most recently in the second half of 2022 — that last touch preceded a three-year bull run. With the score now at 0.24, bitcoin's market price is approaching its realized fair value after a sell-off that wiped roughly $390 billion from crypto's total market cap last week, the worst weekly rout since the FTX collapse.
Market impact
Not all signals are flashing green simultaneously. Long-Term Holder MVRV sits at 1.29 while Short-Term Holder MVRV stands at 0.84 — the two have not yet converged. Historically, when LTH-MVRV and STH-MVRV close that gap, a major cycle low forms, as seen in 2015, 2019, and 2022. The elevated LTH reading suggests long-term holders still carry meaningful unrealized profit, implying some further downside may be needed before a textbook bottom is established. The setup is historically constructive, but the final flush may not be complete.
Frequently asked questions
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What does it mean when Bitcoin's MVRV Z-Score enters the green zone?
It means bitcoin's market price has fallen close to or below its realized fair value — the average price of every coin since its last on-chain transaction. Historically, this zone has coincided with major cycle bottoms and preceded significant recoveries.
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Why do analysts say the absolute bottom may not be in yet despite the low Z-Score?
Long-Term Holder MVRV (1.29) and Short-Term Holder MVRV (0.84) have not yet converged. Past cycle lows in 2015, 2019, and 2022 only formed once that gap closed, suggesting long-term holders may need to reduce unrealized profits further before a definitive bottom is established.
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How severe was the sell-off that pushed the MVRV Z-Score to its current level?
Last week's crypto sell-off wiped approximately $390 billion from total market capitalization, described as the worst weekly rout since the FTX collapse in late 2022.
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