CryptoSlate
Bitcoin options with about $2.7 billion in notional value expire on Deribit at 08:00 UTC on Nov. 6, five and a half hours before the US jobs report. The 33,441 BTC in outstanding contracts include approximately 25,012 BTC in calls and 8,429 BTC in puts, a put-to-call ratio of 0.34.
The $79,000 max-pain level, where the contracts would generate the lowest collective intrinsic-value payout, sits below the quoted Bitcoin price of $80,280. It is not a price forecast, and the $2.7 billion notional figure is not money expected to flow into or out of the market.
A Nov. 5 order-book snapshot showed an $80,000 put expiring Nov. 7 offered at about $682 per BTC, versus $393 for one expiring Nov. 6. The roughly 74% premium also reflects the longer contract duration and other pricing factors.
Frequently asked questions
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How much time separates the Bitcoin options expiry from the jobs report?
The Deribit contracts expire at 08:00 UTC on Nov. 6, five and a half hours before the US jobs report.
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What does the $79,000 max-pain level mean?
It is the settlement price at which the outstanding options would generate the lowest collective intrinsic-value payout. It is not a forecast of Bitcoin's price.
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How are calls and puts distributed in the expiring contracts?
The outstanding contracts include approximately 25,012 BTC in calls and 8,429 BTC in puts, giving a put-to-call ratio of 0.34.
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Why was the Nov. 7 Bitcoin put more expensive than the Nov. 6 put?
The Nov. 7 contract provides coverage beyond the jobs report. Its higher quoted premium also reflects its longer duration and other market-pricing factors.
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Does the $2.7 billion expiry represent money entering or leaving Bitcoin?
No. The figure is the notional value of outstanding options contracts, not the amount expected to flow into or out of the market.
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