CoinDesk
Bitcoin is shaping up to print another lower high in a bearish structure that dates back to October, with the BTC chart down roughly 7% over the past two weeks even as S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 index futures trade higher by more than 0.5%. Ether has fared worse, shedding more than 10% over the same window and sitting mid-range in a months-old February-to-April band near $2,098 with no sign of reclaiming lost ground.
The split between majors and the rest of the market is sharp. CoinDesk's Computing Select Index added 1.9% on the session — led by FET (+4.8%) and RENDER (+7.2%) — while the DeFi Select Index gained 1.3%, suggesting capital is rotating into speculative AI and DeFi baskets rather than waiting for BTC and ETH to break their ranges. Privacy tokens moved the other way, with ZEC, XMR and DASH falling as much as 7%.
Why it matters
The divergence with equities is the signal. US index futures are green and crypto is bleeding, which rules out a macro-risk-off read and points to crypto-specific headwinds — heavy supply concentration, large options positioning, and the looming $6.6 billion Deribit expiry on May 29 with $75K puts and $80K calls sitting at the centre of gravity. BTC rebounded from its 128-day moving average near $74,500 but remains capped below the true market mean and short-term-holder cost basis around $77,000, leaving the path of least resistance lower until those levels flip.
Derivatives positioning tells a quieter story. Futures volume has cooled 10% to $130 billion in 24 hours while notional open interest sits near $126 billion and 24-hour liquidations dropped 21% to $126 million — a steady, range-bound tape rather than a forced unwind. BTC futures OI has pulled back to 711K BTC from 793K earlier this month, but ETH OI is hovering just below record highs near 15 million ETH, and 30-day implied volatility on both is sliding, consistent with persistent vol-selling rather than panic demand for protection. Still, Deribit BTC puts at $70K–$76K strikes are among the most traded in the past 24 hours — a bearish bet layered on top of an otherwise quiet book.
Frequently asked questions
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Why is Bitcoin falling while stocks are rallying?
S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures are up more than 0.5% while BTC is down 7% over two weeks. The split rules out a macro-risk-off read and points to crypto-specific headwinds — heavy supply concentration, large options positioning, and a looming $6.6B Deribit expiry on May 29 with $75K puts and $80K calls at the centre…
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What level does Bitcoin need to reclaim to break the bearish structure?
BTC rebounded from its 128-day moving average near $74,500 but remains capped below the true market mean and short-term-holder cost basis around $77,000. Until those onchain resistance levels flip, the path of least resistance stays lower and another lower high in the sequence dating back to October remains the base…
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Why are AI tokens outperforming while Bitcoin and Ether weaken?
CoinDesk's Computing Select Index added 1.9% on the session, led by FET (+4.8%) and RENDER (+7.2%), while the DeFi Select Index gained 1.3%. The pattern suggests capital is rotating into speculative AI and DeFi baskets rather than waiting for BTC and ETH to break their months-old ranges.
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What do derivatives positioning and funding rates say about the next move?
BTC futures OI pulled back to 711K from 793K earlier this month, ETH OI hovers near record highs around 15M ETH, and 30-day implied volatility on both is sliding — signs of persistent vol-selling rather than panic demand. Still, Deribit BTC puts at $70K–$76K strikes were among the most traded in 24 hours, layering a…
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Which altcoins are seeing the biggest positioning shifts right now?
NEAR is the standout — OI hit a record 309M tokens from 182M a week ago, the token added 14% to $2.82, and positive CVD confirms buyers lifting offers. LINK OI climbed to 42.96M tokens with annualized funding near 8%. SHIB, HBAR and TRX also saw OI gains, while ZEC, XLM and HYPE bled.
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