CoinDesk
Bitcoin reached $126,000 in 2025, above its previous cycle high near $70,000, but its price relative to the 30-year Treasury yield failed to make a new peak. The 30-year yield cleared 5% this year, its highest level since 2007, increasing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding BTC. That ratio has broken multi-year support and confirmed a bearish head-and-shoulders pattern. The setup puts Bitwise's $1.3M decade forecast under pressure, while leaving room for Bitcoin's dollar price to rise again.
Why it matters
Most seven-figure Bitcoin forecasts assume BTC captures part of gold's market cap or draws allocations from large pools such as global pension funds. But each dollar held in Bitcoin forgoes long-term Treasury yield. Elevated rates therefore raise the hurdle for the capital rotation these forecasts require.
The 2025 cycle showed the tension: Bitcoin's dollar price made a new high, while its rate-adjusted ratio did not. That breaks the pattern of setting a new peak on the measure in every cycle since inception.
Market impact
Thomas Bulkowski's study of more than 2,800 historical trades ranks the head-and-shoulders top ninth among 36 chart patterns. The study found a 19% failure rate, an average 16% decline after confirmation, and a 51% rate for reaching the projected target.
The breakdown points to further weakness for BTC against the long-term cost of capital, not a guaranteed collapse in its dollar price. Seven-figure targets would need rates to turn as supportive as they were in 2020-21. For now, the backdrop is moving the other way.
Frequently asked questions
-
Why do Treasury yields matter for Bitcoin's $1M forecasts?
Bitcoin does not pay a yield, so capital held in BTC forgoes Treasury returns. When the 30-year yield is above 5%, that opportunity cost makes the capital rotation assumed by the forecasts harder.
-
What happened to the BTC-to-30-year Treasury yield ratio?
It failed to set a new high during the 2025 bull run, unlike Bitcoin's dollar price, then broke multi-year support and confirmed a bearish head-and-shoulders pattern.
-
How did Bitcoin's 2025 price compare with its prior cycle high?
Bitcoin reached $126,000 in 2025, compared with a previous cycle high near $70,000.
-
What does Bitwise's $1.3M Bitcoin forecast assume?
Bitwise's call is for Bitcoin to reach $1.3M within a decade and assumes it captures part of gold's market cap or receives allocations from large pools such as global pension funds.
-
How reliable is the bearish head-and-shoulders signal?
Bulkowski's study of more than 2,800 historical trades ranked it ninth among 36 patterns. It found a 19% failure rate, a 16% average decline after confirmation and a 51% rate for reaching the projected target.
CryptoSlate
Benjamin Cowen
CoinTelegraph
Whale Alert
Crypto News
Glassnode