CryptoSlate
Bitcoin is pressing against an 880,000 BTC supply shelf sitting between roughly $77,500 and $80,300 in cost basis, a wall worth nearly $68 billion that has rejected every attempt to reclaim the $80,000 level since late August. Data from Bitfinex Alpha shows about 880,000 BTC entered the market between February and March at prices close to current levels, leaving a large cohort of holders near breakeven just as Bitcoin trades around $77,890. Long-term holder SOPR has hovered near 1 for nine consecutive sessions, evidence that those buyers are using the recovery to exit without realizing losses rather than capitulating into deeper drawdowns.
Why it matters
The concentration of supply at cost creates a recurring ceiling. Bitfinex estimates the share of Bitcoin supply in profit fell from 72.1% on Aug. 27 to 67.7% within days as price slipped from $80,256 to $77,468, putting roughly 880,000 BTC inside a narrow $2,800 cost-basis window. That means modest price moves can shift tens of billions of dollars between profit and loss, releasing supply from investors who sat through months underwater. So far the selling has been absorbed. The question is whether fresh demand can clear the zone or whether the recovery stalls near current levels.
Market impact
The demand side is shifting. Strategy bought 4,603 BTC for $369.7 million between Aug. 24 and Aug. 30, ending a 10-week purchase pause at an average price of $80,318, directly inside the resistance zone. That move arrived as US spot Bitcoin ETFs cooled after a nine-session inflow streak that pulled in about $3.04 billion, with a $201.9 million outflow on Aug. 28, a brief $216.7 million inflow, and another $236.5 million in withdrawals to open September. Options traders are hedging too: the Sept. 11 expiry carries a 1.0 put-call ratio against a broader 0.56, with downside protection clustered between $68,000 and $75,000. Bitfinex sees two daily closes above $82,818 as confirmation the shelf has been absorbed, putting roughly $85,200 in focus. Two closes below $76,657 would expose $73,500 and the short-term holder cost basis near $69,980.
Frequently asked questions
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What is the 880,000 BTC supply wall blocking Bitcoin's rally?
Bitfinex Alpha data shows about 880,000 BTC carry a cost basis between roughly $77,500 and $80,300, representing nearly $68 billion of supply that flips between profit and loss as price moves through that zone. The concentration creates a recurring ceiling because holders near breakeven tend to sell rather than wait…
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Why are long-term Bitcoin holders selling near current prices?
Long-term holder SOPR has hovered near 1 for nine consecutive sessions, indicating coins are being moved at roughly the same price at which they were acquired. Bitfinex ties this to investors who accumulated between February and March, sat through the downturn, and are now using the recovery to exit without realizing…
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How much Bitcoin did Strategy buy and at what price?
Strategy purchased 4,603 BTC for $369.7 million between Aug. 24 and Aug. 30 at an average price of $80,318. The acquisition ended a 10-week purchase pause and lifted the company's holdings to 845,050 BTC, with the buy landing directly inside the resistance zone.
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Are US spot Bitcoin ETFs still seeing inflows?
Demand has cooled after a strong stretch. US spot Bitcoin ETFs pulled in about $3.04B during a nine-session inflow streak before recording a $201.9M outflow on Aug. 28, a $216.7M inflow, and another $236.5M in withdrawals to open September.
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What price levels would confirm or break Bitcoin's current structure?
Bitfinex sees two daily closes above $82,818, with improving holder profitability and positive ETF flows, as confirmation the supply shelf has been absorbed, putting roughly $85,200 in focus. Two closes below $76,657 would weaken the structure and expose $73,500 and the short-term holder cost basis near $69,980.
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