Bitcoin's Iran-deal rally hits a wall as Fed minutes revive hike-risk fears!

Bitcoin staged a rally on optimism around a potential Iran nuclear deal, but the move is now running into two structural headwinds that could unwind it fast: oil-flow dynamics and a Federal Reserve that is no longer signalling cuts.

Wednesday's Fed minutes were the sharper blow. Bitcoin's 2026 bull case had been built on the assumption that the next meaningful Fed move would be a rate cut — easing financial conditions, weakening the dollar, and lifting risk assets including crypto. The May 24 minutes dismantled that assumption, with policymakers signalling that a hike remains on the table if inflation stays sticky. That flips the macro script entirely.

The Iran-deal angle adds a second complication.