Crypto News
Bitwise raised its 2036 Bitcoin price target to $1.6 million from $1.3 million, projecting a 34.3% annualized return over the next decade. Its previous model projected 28.3%. The asset manager published the updated outlook in its 2027 Bitcoin Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions on October 28.
Why it matters
The forecast is built on expanding markets for both store-of-value assets and institutional investment. Bitwise estimates the global store-of-value market could reach $110 trillion by 2036, up from its prior $91 trillion estimate, while the institutional investment market could grow from $216 trillion to $303 trillion.
The model assumes Bitcoin captures 25% of the store-of-value market and institutions allocate 1% to 5% of portfolios to BTC. Those allocations could represent $1.5 trillion to $7.4 trillion in institutional demand. Bitwise estimates new Bitcoin issuance adds only about $14 billion annually, making the gap between potential demand and new supply central to its bullish case.
Market impact
Bitwise's revised target comes after Bitcoin fell more than 50% from October 2025 to June 2026, then recovered from lows below $59,000. The firm says the downturn supports its view that Bitcoin's market structure is maturing, though the forecast remains dependent on adoption and market growth assumptions.
The range of outcomes is wide: Bitwise's bear case puts Bitcoin at $130,686 by 2036, while its bull case approaches $3.67 million. The spread underscores that the $1.6 million target is a long-term scenario, not a near-term price call.
Frequently asked questions
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What annualized return does Bitwise project for Bitcoin over the next decade?
Bitwise projects a 34.3% compound annual growth rate over the next decade, up from 28.3% in its previous model.
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What market size underpins Bitwise's 2036 Bitcoin forecast?
Bitwise estimates the global store-of-value market could reach $110 trillion by 2036, compared with its previous estimate of $91 trillion.
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How much institutional demand does Bitwise's model anticipate?
The model estimates that institutional allocations of 1% to 5% of portfolios could generate $1.5 trillion to $7.4 trillion in Bitcoin demand.
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What does Bitwise assume about Bitcoin's share of the store-of-value market?
Bitwise's model assumes Bitcoin captures 25% of the store-of-value market by 2036.
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How wide is the range in Bitwise's Bitcoin scenarios?
Bitwise's 2036 bear case is $130,686, while its bull case approaches $3.67 million, compared with its central target of $1.6 million.
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