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Wintermute said crypto's flow support is weakening as U.S. spot BTC and ETH ETFs posted $679 million and $542 million in weekly net outflows. BTC fell 3.2% and ETH dropped 7.0%, while BTC ETF outflows reached their highest weekly total since late June.
Why it matters
Equities remain supported by earnings expectations, but crypto is facing a weaker capital-flow backdrop. Wintermute said a sustained recovery requires long-term Treasury yields to stabilize and spot ETF flows to turn positive.
The firm remains constructive on crypto over the long term, but the near-term setup is more fragile. Persistent outflows could keep pressure on the major assets and reduce support for broader market rallies.
Market impact
Wintermute said BTC remains vulnerable to volatility and downside risks until flows improve. It also urged caution around rallies in lower-quality altcoins, which lack the same flow support.
The firm would turn more cautious if the U.S. 30-year Treasury yield rises above 5.64% or BTC repeatedly fails to break above $82,500. Those levels give investors two markers for tracking whether macro pressure and weak ETF demand are deepening.
Frequently asked questions
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How large were last week's BTC and ETH ETF outflows?
U.S. spot BTC ETFs recorded $679 million in net outflows, while spot ETH ETFs recorded $542 million in net outflows.
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How did BTC and ETH perform during the week?
BTC fell 3.2% and ETH dropped 7.0% during the week covered by Wintermute's analysis.
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Why does Wintermute link crypto's recovery to Treasury yields?
Wintermute said a sustained recovery requires long-term Treasury yields to stabilize, alongside a return to positive spot ETF flows.
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What would make Wintermute more cautious on crypto?
The firm would turn more cautious if the U.S. 30-year Treasury yield exceeds 5.64% or BTC repeatedly fails to break above $82,500.
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What is Wintermute's view on low-quality altcoin rallies?
Wintermute said low-quality altcoin rallies should be approached cautiously while crypto lacks stronger support from capital flows.
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