CoinDesk
Bitcoin underperformed a broad risk-asset rally on May 28 after reports that U.S.–Iran negotiations could reopen the Strait of Hormuz lifted sentiment across equities and commodities. BTC weakness was the outlier, not the macro — Bankinter analysts noted that the de-escalation expectations were easing pressure on oil and releasing risk appetite into global markets, while BTC failed to follow.
The structural concern sits on the demand side. Net outflows from spot bitcoin ETFs hit a record nine-day streak on Thursday, according to Glassnode, with inflows and spot demand too weak to sustain a push above cost-basis levels near $78,000. Long-term holder supply has climbed to a record 15.8 million BTC, but CryptoQuant argues the figure is partly an artifact of slowing turnover rather than fresh conviction — short-term holder supply has dropped about 2.2 million BTC since December, including roughly 900,000 BTC of Coinbase reserves that crossed the 155-day threshold simply by sitting still.
Why it matters
The ETF flow streak is the cleanest demand proxy the market has had since 2024, and nine straight sessions of net outflows is the longest run on record. Glassnode's realized profit/loss ratio of 1.56 sits below the levels typical of stronger bull markets, reinforcing the read that spot bid is fading rather than rotating. Polymarket traders are pricing a strong probability that BTC closes May between $72,000 and $76,000 — a tight band consistent with a market waiting for fresh demand, not chasing.
The long-term holder reading complicates the bull case. A rising LTH supply has historically been a constructive signal because it reflects coins being held rather than sold. CryptoQuant's caveat is the more useful framing for where the market actually sits: the supply is accumulating not because new buyers are absorbing supply at the margin, but because existing holders are doing nothing. The demand that drove the 2024–2025 rally came through the ETF wrapper, and that wrapper is currently in reverse.
Frequently asked questions
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How many consecutive days have spot bitcoin ETFs seen net outflows?
Net outflows from spot bitcoin ETFs reached a record nine-day streak as of Thursday, May 28, 2026, according to Glassnode.
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Why did bitcoin underperform the broader risk-asset rally?
Risk assets advanced on reports that U.S.–Iran negotiations could reopen the Strait of Hormuz, easing oil pressure. Bitcoin's weakness in that environment reads as crypto-specific demand cooling rather than a macro move.
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What does the record 15.8M BTC long-term holder supply actually mean?
CryptoQuant argues the record may be hollow — short-term holder supply has fallen about 2.2M BTC since December, including ~900K BTC of Coinbase reserves that crossed the 155-day threshold by sitting still rather than through fresh buying.
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What price band is Polymarket pricing for end-of-May BTC?
Polymarket traders are assigning a strong probability that bitcoin closes May 2026 between $72,000 and $76,000.
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What level would BTC need to break to invalidate the bearish flow signal?
Glassnode said inflows and spot demand remain too weak to sustain a move above cost-basis levels near $78,000 — a sustained push through that zone would be the first sign the demand backdrop is turning.
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