CoinDesk
Bitcoin held above $62,000 through a weekend of escalating U.S.-Iran tensions and a Hormuz Strait closure, a level of resilience that contrasts sharply with March and April, when similar escalations pushed the largest cryptocurrency sharply lower. Over-the-counter trader Jasper De Maere of Wintermute said the price barely flinched through airstrikes, suggesting the marginal seller has stepped away.
Two data points reinforce that read. U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs pulled in a net $197.40 million last week, ending an eight-week outflow streak, and Glassnode data shows net spot selling collapsed from nearly 2,000 BTC per day in June to just 53 BTC per day in July, the calmest month of 2026 outside April. Nexo analyst Dessislava Ianeva noted the past ten days have split roughly evenly between inflow and outflow, netting slightly positive.
Why it matters
The combination of price stability under geopolitical stress and a break in the ETF outflow streak is the first credible signal since the spring that the capitulation phase may be ending. When the marginal seller exhausts, the bid has no remaining counterparty at lower prices, which is the mechanical setup that precedes spot-led recoveries.
Centralized exchange data adds a second layer. June CEX volumes rose for the first time in five months, with spot climbing 15.3% to $1.11 trillion and RWA perpetual volumes hitting a record $311 billion. Returning activity is necessary, but it does not by itself confirm conviction buying.
Market impact
FxPro chief market analyst Alex Kuptsikevich cautioned that the rebound is currently driven mainly by retail traders in speculative futures rather than spot buyers, and without a return of buy-side liquidity prices could stay rangebound for months. The U.S. June CPI print on Tuesday and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's first Congressional testimony this week are the near-term catalysts that will determine whether the recovery holds or rolls back over.
Frequently asked questions
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Why is Bitcoin holding above $62K despite U.S.-Iran tensions?
Analysts say the marginal seller has been exhausted after months of capitulation. OTC trader Jasper De Maere of Wintermute noted BTC barely flinched through the latest airstrikes, unlike March and April when similar escalations triggered sharp drops.
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How much did spot bitcoin ETFs pull in last week?
U.S.-listed spot bitcoin ETFs drew a net $197.40 million last week, ending an eight-week streak of outflows. Nexo's Dessislava Ianeva called it one turn rather than a trend, but evidence the marginal seller is drying up.
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What does Glassnode data show about spot selling pressure?
Net spot selling averaged nearly 2,000 BTC per day in June but slowed to just 53 BTC per day in July, the calmest month of 2026 outside April. The drop in realized selling is the clearest mechanical signal that exhaustion is underway.
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Is the Bitcoin recovery being driven by spot buyers or futures traders?
FxPro chief market analyst Alex Kuptsikevich says the rebound is currently driven mainly by retail traders in speculative futures, not spot buyers. Without a return of buy-side liquidity, he warned prices could stay rangebound for months.
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What macroeconomic events could move Bitcoin this week?
U.S. June CPI is scheduled for release on Tuesday, and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's first Congressional testimony is due this week. Both could shift rate-cut expectations and either reinforce or break the recovery thesis.
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