BTC's monthly RSI is sitting just below the moving average line that, on the three previous occasions it triggered, kicked off a major bull cycle. Two of those three breaks coincided with the start of an economic expansion phase, the kind of setup that has been absent since 2020 into 2021. BTC's 20-month moving average is hovering around $86,000, roughly $7,000 above current spot price, and the analyst frames a clean break above it as confirmation that the bottoming range between the 20 and 50-month MAs is finished.
Why it matters
The thesis hinges on capital rotating down the risk curve. With the business cycle now pivoting from contraction to expansion, the analyst argues money will flow from safety into BTC first, then ETH, then altcoins. The others-to-BTC ratio bottomed in June 2025, which the analyst reads as the precondition for an altcoin-led leg out of a multi-year sideways contraction. ETH is the leading indicator he leans on. When it broke out of its multi-month channel, ETH gained 31%, while his top altcoin pick gained 154%. The point is not ETH itself but the directional signal it gives to anything further down the risk curve.
Market impact
The chart setup is not without near-term risk. BTC is sitting at macro resistance across the monthly, the weekly, and the RSI itself, and the analyst flags a throwback into the upper $60Ks to low $70Ks as a normal consolidation move. ETH sits at the 200-day MA with the 50-week MA converging on the 200-week MA, and a pullback to the $1,700-$1,900 range is on the table. The asymmetry the analyst leans into is sharp: when ETH consolidated to its 200-day MA last time, ETH lost 17% while his top altcoin pick lost 37%. The trigger he is watching is a clean monthly close above BTC's 20-month MA, paired with expansion in the business cycle.
Frequently asked questions
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What is the Bitcoin monthly RSI signal that just triggered?
The RSI on BTC's monthly chart is sitting just below its moving average line. On the three previous occasions this trigger fired, it marked the start of a major bull cycle, with two of those breaks coinciding with the start of an economic expansion phase.
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What level does Bitcoin need to break for the bull case to confirm?
Bitcoin's 20-month moving average is hovering around $86,000, roughly $7,000 above current spot price. A clean monthly close above it would confirm the bottoming range between the 20 and 50-month MAs has been broken.
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Why is Ethereum positioned as the leading indicator for altcoins?
The analyst argues ETH is a less-volatile proxy for the broader altcoin market. When ETH broke out of its multi-month channel, it gained 31%, while his top altcoin pick gained 154%, showing how altcoin moves amplify ETH's direction.
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What near-term pullback levels are being flagged?
Bitcoin could retest the upper $60Ks to low $70Ks as part of normal consolidation at macro resistance. ETH could pull back to the $1,700-$1,900 range as it sits at the 200-day MA and 50-week MA converging with the 200-week MA.
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Why is the business cycle phase important to this thesis?
Two of the three prior RSI triggers on BTC's monthly chart coincided with the start of an economic expansion, a setup that has been absent since 2020-21. The current pivot from contraction to expansion is what the analyst says rotates capital down the risk curve.
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