CryptoSlate
Two consecutive Deribit Friday expiries cleared out the cluster of options contracts traders had been blaming for Bitcoin's mid-summer flatline. Roughly 19,000 BTC options worth $1.2 billion expired Friday at 08:00 UTC with max pain pinned at $64,500; Bitcoin settled the day at $64,140, having failed to hold $66,000 earlier in the week. The week before, an identical-sized expiry carried max pain at $63,000 and Bitcoin drifted the other way. Two expiries, two opposite outcomes, and in neither case did the theoretical pin do visible work.
Why it matters
The 'dealers pinning the market' story ran out of road with the contracts themselves. With the hedging excuse gone, what remains is a simpler read: demand is thin on both sides. CryptoQuant's taker-flow data shows sellers crossing the spread aggressively on Thursday and Friday, the Coinbase premium index sank to a 0.088% discount (its widest since July 16), and leveraged longs absorbed $45.9 million in forced unwinds against just $7.4 million on the short side. Spot Bitcoin ETFs shed $225.2 million Thursday after a seven-session inflow streak that had drawn in close to $1 billion, with BlackRock's IBIT alone responsible for $202.5 million of the reversal.
Market impact
The big remaining bet is a $2.5 billion notional call spread on Deribit's July 31 monthly expiry: roughly 27,000 contracts at the $70,000 strike and 21,000 at $72,000, with calls dominating both. Deribit's CCO Jean-David Péquignot flagged a single block that bought 20,000 of the $70,000 calls and sold 20,000 of the $72,000 calls. For the trade to pay, Bitcoin has to climb about 9% in six days, and Deribit's own model puts the odds of the price merely touching $70,000 during July at 14.5%. The July 31 expiry lands two days after the Fed's July 28–29 decision, where a quarter-point hike is priced at roughly one-in-three and a cut at effectively zero, and the CLARITY Act timeline has slipped, with Polymarket pricing 2026 passage near 35% from above 80% in February.
Frequently asked questions
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What is max pain in Bitcoin options?
Max pain is the price at which the most options sold on Deribit expire worthless, costing option sellers the least. It is a snapshot of where open interest has piled up and does not by itself push spot price toward it.
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How much Bitcoin options expired on July 25?
Roughly 19,000 BTC options worth about $1.2 billion in notional expired at 08:00 UTC on Friday on Deribit, with max pain at $64,500. Bitcoin closed the day at $64,140.
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What is the $2.5 billion call spread on Deribit?
Deribit CCO Jean-David Péquignot described a single block that bought 20,000 $70,000 calls and sold 20,000 $72,000 calls, a structure worth about $2.5 billion in gross notional across both legs. It pays if Bitcoin finishes above $70,000 on July 31 and stops paying more once it clears $72,000.
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What odds does Deribit give Bitcoin reaching $70,000?
Deribit's own model puts the probability of Bitcoin merely touching $70,000 during July at 14.5%, with $72,000 at 4.1%. The $70,000 strike needs roughly 9% upside in six days to finish in the money.
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Why is the July 31 expiry tied to the Fed and CLARITY Act?
The expiry lands two days after the FOMC's July 28–29 meeting, where a quarter-point hike is priced at roughly one-in-three. Orbit Markets' Jimmy Yang tied July 31 call demand to CLARITY Act passage hopes, but Polymarket now prices 2026 passage near 35% from above 80% in February after Senate Democrats pulled support.
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