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Bernstein kept an Outperform rating on Circle Internet Group with a $140 price target, implying roughly 59% upside from Friday's $87.98 close. The note, led by analyst Gautam Chhugani, argues Circle's growth cycle can run even if the Clarity Act does not pass in the September 15 Senate vote, and that stablecoin demand has become structural rather than legislative. Circle shares surged more than 5% on Friday on the back of the call.
Why it matters
The framing is the headline. Bernstein is decoupling Circle's stock from the binary outcome of US stablecoin legislation, the variable most sell-side coverage has hinged on. Without that legislative dependency, the analyst thesis rests on USDC's role inside the actual crypto economy: roughly 80% of DEX and DeFi volume, $1.7 billion added to circulating supply over the past week after about six months of flatlining, and 99% of x402 agent-payment volume settling in USDC. Circle's Agent Stack, launched in May, already hosts more than 900 paid services, with stablecoins emerging as the native rail for agentic commerce rather than a side feature.
Market impact
USDC's supply reacceleration is the most concrete signal. Adjusted stablecoin transaction volume reached roughly $11 trillion in 2025 and is annualizing about $17 trillion through July, up around 60% year over year, per Bernstein. The team expects Circle's growth to be driven by a macro regime shift favoring hard assets, real-world blockchain capital markets, stablecoin payment adoption, and emerging agentic-payment use cases. If the Clarity Act fails, Bernstein anticipates SEC or CFTC intervention to step in, and treats either path as a positive for USDC: third-party rewards stay under the existing model without legislation, or link to user activity if the bill passes.
Frequently asked questions
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Why does Bernstein say Circle can grow without the Clarity Act?
Because USDC's supply is reaccelerating ($1.7B added in a week after six months flat), Circle holds roughly 80% of DEX and DeFi volume, and 99% of x402 agent-payment volume settles in USDC, the Bernstein team views demand as structural rather than legislative.
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What is Bernstein's price target on Circle?
Bernstein kept an Outperform rating with a $140 price target, implying roughly 59% upside from Circle's $87.98 close on Friday, when shares jumped more than 5%.
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What is the Clarity Act and what happens on September 15?
The Clarity Act is pending US stablecoin legislation with a Senate vote scheduled for September 15. Bernstein says its Circle thesis holds regardless of the outcome, and expects SEC or CFTC intervention to accelerate if the bill fails.
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What is Circle's Agent Stack?
Agent Stack is a platform Circle launched in May for agentic payments. It already hosts more than 900 paid services, and 99% of x402 agent-payment volume settles in USDC.
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How large is the stablecoin transaction market?
Adjusted stablecoin transaction volume reached roughly $11 trillion in 2025 and is annualizing about $17 trillion through July, up roughly 60% year over year, according to Bernstein.
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