Galaxy now puts the CLARITY Act's chance of passing in 2026 at 10%, citing unresolved issues and a tight Senate timeline. The assessment marks a setback for expectations of near-term US crypto market-structure legislation.
Why it matters
The CLARITY Act is being watched as a potential framework for US digital-asset market structure and regulatory oversight. Lower passage odds leave institutions and digital-asset companies facing a less certain US policy backdrop.
The 10% figure is Galaxy's assessment, not a legislative outcome. The immediate test is whether Senate negotiators can resolve the outstanding issues within the tight timeline.
Market impact
For markets, clearer US crypto rules now look like a less immediate catalyst. Regulatory uncertainty remains in place for institutions and businesses building around digital assets, leaving policy risk attached to US crypto exposure.
Senate progress on the unresolved issues is the next key signal. A breakthrough would reopen the 2026 path, while continued delay would reinforce Galaxy's lower estimate.
Frequently asked questions
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Why did Galaxy lower its 2026 CLARITY Act outlook?
Galaxy cited unresolved issues and a tight Senate timeline.
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What policy area would the CLARITY Act address?
It is being watched as a potential framework for US digital-asset market structure and regulatory oversight.
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How could a stalled bill affect digital-asset businesses?
Institutions and digital-asset companies would face a less certain US policy backdrop, with regulatory uncertainty remaining in place.
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What should markets watch next on the CLARITY Act?
Senate progress on the unresolved issues is the key catalyst. A breakthrough would reopen the 2026 path.
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Does Galaxy's 10% estimate decide whether the bill passes?
No. It is Galaxy's assessment, while the outcome depends on whether Senate negotiators resolve the outstanding issues within the tight timeline.
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