A widely followed crypto analyst argues that the bull market investors think they have already experienced never actually started, and that the real one, driven by a charging PMI business cycle rather than the four-year halving clock, is at the doorstep.
His core data point is the risk models in the CCV Intelligence system. Ethereum's risk score sits at 28, a level at which price has been higher three months later 73% of the time and higher one year later 92% of the time across the full history. The altcoin risk model is even more extreme at 11, with a 100% one-year forward win rate going back to 2013. Cardano's score reads 12. He frames July 2026 explicitly as an opportunity and accumulation zone for crypto, the kind of reading that takes years and cycles to set up.
Why it matters
The argument reframes the entire 2023–2025 Bitcoin rally as something other than a bull market. Bitcoin ran from $16,000 to roughly $120,000 while PMI spent almost the entire stretch below 50, meaning the move was powered by ETF access, election-cycle flows and structural demand, not by macroeconomic expansion. That, he says, is why the cycle felt grinding and narrow instead of parabolic, and why Ethereum spent years stuck while Bitcoin hit new highs. The bull market that investors have been waiting for, the one with broad-based altcoin participation and a charging business cycle behind it, has not yet arrived.
Global recession risk just printed its lowest reading since January 2021. Oil dropped from $120 to $70 over two months, pulling CPI down with it, and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent pointed to AI-driven productivity as the reason underlying inflation can keep falling. With the Fed preparing to recalibrate how it reads inflation, the analyst sees the setup for disinflation, eventual rate cuts, and a business-cycle expansion that historically lights up every corner of the crypto market.
Market impact
The concrete trade levels he flags are tight and well-defined. On Bitcoin, the 200-day moving average sits near $72,000–$73,000, and a decisive reclaim of that level on the daily chart is the macro bullish reversal signal he has waited for since 2023; he is watching a possible inverse head-and-shoulders bottom forming against a 61.8% Fibonacci near $61,000. On Ethereum, the line in the sand is $2,000, which lines up almost exactly with the 20-week moving average.
Frequently asked questions
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Why does this analyst say the bull market hasn't started yet?
He argues Bitcoin's 2023 to 2025 move from $16,000 to roughly $120,000 happened with PMI below 50 almost the entire time, meaning it was powered by ETF flows and election-cycle demand rather than a business-cycle expansion. The parabolic bull market historically tied to PMI expansion has not yet begun.
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What do the CCV risk models show right now?
Ethereum's risk score is at 28, a level at which price has been higher one year later 92% of the time. The altcoin risk model reads 11 with a 100% one-year forward win rate back to 2013, and Cardano is at 12. The analyst calls July 2026 an accumulation zone.
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What macro signals is he pointing to?
Global recession risk just hit its lowest reading since January 2021, oil fell from $120 to $70 over two months pulling CPI down with it, and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent cited AI-driven productivity as a reason inflation can keep falling, all pointing to disinflation rather than reflation.
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What are the key price levels to watch on Bitcoin?
The 200-day moving average near $72,000 to $73,000 is the macro bullish-reversal signal. He also flags a possible inverse head-and-shoulders bottom forming against the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement near $61,000.
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Why is $2,000 the important level on Ethereum?
$2,000 lines up almost exactly with Ethereum's 20-week moving average. Every prior ETH bull cycle began with a decisive weekly close above that level, and the analyst is waiting for a weekly candle that separates cleanly above it rather than another test-and-fail.
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