Ethereum's current pullback may be the final meaningful entry window before the next bull cycle, according to a widely followed technical analyst, who points to a monthly MACD line approaching a bullish cross above its signal line after roughly five years of consolidation. The histogram is still red, meaning the momentum reversal has not even begun yet on the highest timeframe. ETH is meanwhile getting rejected at the 50-day moving average on the daily chart, with the 20-day average sitting near $2,600 and the 200-day near $2,100 to $2,200.
Why it matters
The thesis rests on a macro cycle shift rather than short-term price action. The analyst draws a parallel to July 2019, framing the current move as the transition out of a post-quantitative-tightening dip into an expansion cycle, dated around December 1, 2025. A proprietary business cycle index referenced in the analysis just printed its first expansion environment in roughly 50 months, and monthly RSI on Ethereum sits at levels comparable to where it was before the April 2021 bull market top, but far more contracted.
Market impact
Short term, two patterns are in play. A potential inverse head and shoulders has been building since February with an ascending neckline, while a smaller head and shoulders could push prices lower first. Key support sits in the Fibonacci 0.618 to 0.786 zone around $2,450 to $2,500, with a capitulation scenario dragging ETH toward the 200-day moving average near $2,200. Even that deeper drop would not invalidate the bull thesis, the analyst argues, calling it a normal reset within an expansion cycle.
The same logic translates across altcoins. The analyst cited Ondo's ONDO as a tokenization play being accumulated in a range, with recent buys at 42 and 49 cents and limit orders set near 40 cents and the 200-day around 35 cents. The watch item is whether higher lows keep forming; a shallow right shoulder would set up a year-end reversal, while a deeper shoulder through a red October still fits the broader accumulation window before it closes.
Frequently asked questions
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What is the monthly MACD signal on Ethereum right now?
The monthly MACD line is approaching a cross above its signal line while the histogram remains red, a setup the analyst reads as a bull momentum move that has not yet begun after about five years of consolidation.
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Where are Ethereum's key support levels in this dip?
First support sits in the Fibonacci 0.618 to 0.786 zone around $2,450 to $2,500. If that fails, the analyst sees a capitulation scenario toward the 200-day moving average near $2,100 to $2,200.
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Why does the analyst call this the last window of opportunity?
A proprietary business cycle index just printed its first expansion in roughly 50 months, and the macro shift out of tightening into expansion mirrors 2019. Once the expansion gets underway, the deep accumulation window narrows.
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What is the inverse head and shoulders pattern forming on ETH?
It is a macro reversal pattern built since February with an ascending neckline. The right shoulder is forming now and may be shallow or deeper; either version fits the bull market entry thesis.
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Which altcoin did the analyst highlight for accumulation?
ONDO, cited as a tokenization play. The analyst reported recent buys at 42 and 49 cents, with limit orders staged near 40 cents and the 200-day moving average around 35 cents if the market dips further.
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