Gemini AI Forecasts Bitcoin at $120K–$150K by End-2026

Google Gemini has published a Bitcoin price outlook that targets $120,000 to $150,000 by the end of 2026, anchored on three compounding structural forces rather than a single catalyst. The model frames Bitcoin near $64,000 as a coiled setup ahead of a major liquidity break, not a broken asset.

The bull case rests on spot ETF inflows steadily absorbing supply, more companies adopting the Strategy treasury playbook of treating Bitcoin as a core balance sheet reserve, and a global rate-cut cycle loosening liquidity conditions. Layered together, Gemini argues these forces are institutionalizing Bitcoin as a macro asset and drying up liquid supply, setting up a supply-shock rally over the next 18 months.

The bear case is unusually stark. If regulatory friction or a global recession triggers aggressive risk-off liquidation across traditional markets, Gemini sees a structural breakdown toward $40,000 to $45,000, a deeper floor than the $55,000 to $60,000 cited in most other BTC predictions in the series.

Why it matters

The framing matters more than the headline numbers. Gemini is treating the move as supply-driven rather than demand-driven, which is why a single catalyst is unnecessary: the three forces are already in motion and feed each other. ETF demand shrinks float, corporate treasuries absorb more of what is left, and cheaper money widens the bid.

The deeper bear floor is the tell. Gemini is one of the few models calling for a real macro-shock tail, not a routine crypto-specific pullback. That asymmetry, higher highs on the bull side and lower lows on the bear side, is what makes the prediction feel coiled rather than incremental.

Market impact

Bitcoin trades near $64,135 after a two-week recovery off June lows near $58,000, the highest close since late May. Support holds at $59,000; the level to watch is $68,000, which capped multiple attempts through May and June and is the first signal that the coiled move is releasing. Heavier resistance sits near $80,000.

The broader structure still prints lower highs stretching back to October, so the dominant downtrend has not technically reversed yet. A clean break and hold above $68,000 would change that.