CoinDesk
Bitcoin is trading just below $62,000, down more than 50% from its October peak, while US technology stocks have pushed to record highs on AI-driven flows. The disconnect is the puzzle, and two new midyear outlooks from Hashdex and Charles Schwab argue the gap closes, though they reach that conclusion from different starting points.
Why it matters
Hashdex chief investment officer Samir Kerbage blames a rotation, not a regime shift. Capital is following attention, he wrote, and right now attention is on AI infrastructure, IPO pipelines and macro rate positioning. He argues the rotation is obscuring structural tailwinds: institutional infrastructure expanding across banks, brokers and payment providers, improving US regulatory clarity and a shot at the CLARITY Act this summer. He also points to record-high on-chain activity. Stablecoin transaction volume in the first half has already exceeded all of 2025, tokenized real-world assets have grown more than 60% year to date, and Q2 ecosystem transactions hit records. The gap between market cap and network activity has never been wider, Kerbage wrote, and that disconnect is unlikely to persist.
Market impact
Charles Schwab's Jim Ferraioli, director of digital currencies research and strategy, makes a cycle argument instead. Bitcoin's prolonged recovery is consistent with prior post-halving periods, he wrote, even if investors expected spot ETFs and institutional adoption to break the four-year pattern. Ferraioli estimates the production costs of less efficient miners at roughly $95,000, the level bitcoin has historically needed more than a year past bear-market bottoms to reclaim. The average investor's cost basis sits near $80,000, which he flags as a potential supply-overhead zone as recovered holders look to exit. He stops short of calling the cycle a law of markets, but argues the pattern is now baked into investor psychology, with each cycle's impact likely to soften as the asset matures and volatility declines.
Frequently asked questions
-
Why is bitcoin lagging record-high US tech stocks?
Hashdex CIO Samir Kerbage says capital is rotating toward AI infrastructure, IPO pipelines and rate positioning, and that rotation is overshadowing structural tailwinds for crypto while prices remain subdued.
-
What structural crypto developments are still intact despite the price lag?
Hashdex points to expanding institutional infrastructure across banks, brokers and payment providers, improving US regulatory clarity with a possible CLARITY Act vote this summer, and record-high on-chain activity including stablecoin volume and tokenized real-world assets.
-
How big is the gap between bitcoin's price and on-chain activity?
Stablecoin transaction volume in the first half of the year has already exceeded all of 2025, tokenized real-world assets have grown more than 60% year to date, and Q2 crypto ecosystem transactions hit records, the widest gap between market cap and network activity Hashdex has measured.
-
How does Charles Schwab frame bitcoin's post-halving recovery?
Schwab's Jim Ferraioli argues the prolonged recovery is consistent with prior post-halving periods, with less-efficient miner production costs near $95,000 and average investor cost basis near $80,000 acting as overhead resistance.
-
Will bitcoin's four-year halving cycle continue to repeat?
Ferraioli stops short of calling the cycle a law of markets but says it is now baked into investor psychology, and expects each cycle's impact to soften as bitcoin matures and volatility declines.
WuBlockchain
Whale Alert
CryptoSlate
CoinTelegraph
Crypto News