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J.P. Morgan Asset Management has issued its first 10-year return forecast for bitcoin, projecting a 10% compounded annual return. Its 31st annual Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions report estimates bitcoin volatility at 55%, compared with a projected 5.5% return for gold.
Why it matters
The forecast marks a change in how the firm approaches bitcoin: analysts introduced a separate model comparing BTC with a subset of assets, while keeping it out of their main models for measuring asset-price relationships. They said bitcoin’s volatility and unstable correlations remain obstacles to widespread portfolio inclusion.
JPMorgan analysts also pointed to growing infrastructure and more defined regulation as factors behind investors’ increasing exploration of crypto assets. The firm’s approach could change as bitcoin volatility declines and correlations stabilize, alongside improvements in regulatory clarity, liquidity and price discovery.
Market impact
The forecast arrives amid expanding institutional activity. JPMorgan analysts estimated earlier this month that around $50 billion had flowed into digital assets in 2026. BlackRock’s spot bitcoin ETF, IBIT, recorded $665 million in inflows on Monday, its largest single-day total since October 2025.
Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan welcomed JPMorgan’s forecast but disputed its 55% volatility estimate, pointing to bitcoin’s declining volatility over the past 15 years. Strategy Chairman Michael Saylor also welcomed the report. The forecast is a long-term assumption, while volatility and correlations remain key considerations for investors assessing bitcoin’s place in portfolios.
Frequently asked questions
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What annual return does JPMorgan forecast for bitcoin over 10 years?
J.P. Morgan Asset Management projects a 10% compounded annual return for bitcoin in its first 10-year forecast.
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How does JPMorgan’s bitcoin volatility estimate compare with gold’s projected return?
The report estimates bitcoin volatility at 55% and projects a 5.5% return for gold.
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Why is bitcoin not included in JPMorgan’s main asset relationship models?
JPMorgan analysts say bitcoin’s volatility and unstable correlations remain obstacles to widespread portfolio inclusion. The firm has created a separate model comparing BTC with a subset of assets.
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What conditions could lead JPMorgan to revise its bitcoin modeling approach?
The analysts said they could revise the approach as bitcoin volatility declines and correlations stabilize, particularly as regulation becomes clearer and liquidity and price discovery improve.
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How much did BlackRock’s IBIT attract on its largest single-day inflow since October 2025?
BlackRock’s spot bitcoin ETF, IBIT, attracted $665 million in inflows on Monday, its largest single-day total since October 2025.
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