CoinDesk
Bitcoin is heading into difficult summer months as investors rotate capital into AI-linked equities and upcoming tech IPOs rather than hold BTC through underperformance, K33 Research said in a Tuesday report. The firm now frames the outlook as a "choppy summer," with spot bitcoin exchange-traded products shedding 62,794 BTC over the past three weeks — the second-largest outflow streak on record — and CME bitcoin futures open interest collapsing to its lowest level since October 2023.
Why it matters
K33 head of research Vetle Lunde pointed to a stark divergence: bitcoin has repeatedly failed to reclaim its 200-day moving average while the Nasdaq and S&P 500 continue setting record highs. "Much of the market views the opportunity cost of holding BTC as too high while anything AI-related soars," Lunde wrote, flagging upcoming IPOs from SpaceX and Anthropic as additional magnets for capital that might otherwise rotate back into crypto. The setup has flipped the firm from calling $60,000 the cycle low in February — a thesis underpinned by deeply negative funding rates and powerful short-squeeze conditions — to warning that the derivatives backdrop now looks meaningfully more fragile.
Market impact
Funding rates in perpetual futures have risen alongside open interest even as bitcoin's price has fallen, a pattern K33 reads as leveraged longs building into a weakening market rather than capitulation cleaning positioning out. CME futures open interest at October 2023 lows suggests institutional traders are reducing exposure rather than waiting for a clearer catalyst. K33 still views bitcoin as undervalued relative to equities over the long run, but the near-term read is defensive: with outside capital reluctant to enter and existing holders trimming, Lunde advised caution and flagged possible deeper lows below the February $60,000 floor.
Note: the seed's appended "More For You" block on Tom Lee and Bitmine's ETH accumulation is a separate story and is not incorporated here.
Frequently asked questions
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What did K33 Research say about bitcoin's near-term outlook?
K33 head of research Vetle Lunde said bitcoin faces a "choppy summer" as capital rotates into AI-linked stocks and upcoming tech IPOs, with outside capital reluctant to enter and existing holders trimming exposure.
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How large have the recent spot bitcoin ETF outflows been?
Spot bitcoin exchange-traded products shed 62,794 BTC over the past three weeks, the second-largest three-week outflow streak on record according to K33's Tuesday report.
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What does K33 see in the bitcoin derivatives market?
CME bitcoin futures open interest has fallen to its lowest level since October 2023, while funding rates in perpetual futures have risen alongside open interest even as price falls — a pattern K33 reads as leveraged longs building into a weakening market.
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Did K33 abandon its $60,000 cycle low call?
K33 has not completely abandoned the view that $60,000 marked the cycle low, but the tone has turned defensive — Lunde warned that latent selling pressure in leveraged longs signals possible deeper lows and advised caution.
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Why are investors rotating out of bitcoin according to K33?
Lunde said investors view the opportunity cost of holding BTC as too high while AI-related equities soar, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 hitting record highs and upcoming IPOs from SpaceX and Anthropic drawing capital that might otherwise flow into crypto.
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