K33 warns BTC faces 'choppy summer' as ETF outflows hit…

K33 Research head Vetle Lunde warned Tuesday that bitcoin is heading into a difficult summer as institutional demand fades and capital rotates aggressively into AI-related equities and upcoming tech IPOs. "Much of the market views the opportunity cost of holding BTC as too high while anything AI-related soars," Lunde wrote, pointing to SpaceX and Anthropic IPO anticipation as additional magnets pulling capital away from crypto.

Why it matters

The warning carries weight because K33 had been one of the more constructive voices on BTC's cycle outlook — the firm previously called the February plunge to ~$60,000 the cycle low, anchoring that thesis on unusually negative perpetual futures funding rates that set up powerful short squeezes. That setup fuelled the rally toward $83,000, but the move stalled exactly at the 200-day moving average, a level that has historically capped bear market rallies. Now the derivatives picture has flipped: CME bitcoin futures open interest has dropped to its lowest since October 2023, signalling institutional de-risking, while funding rates on perps have risen alongside open interest even as BTC falls — a pattern Lunde reads as leveraged longs building into a weakening tape.

Market impact

Spot bitcoin ETPs shed 62,794 BTC over the past three weeks, the second-largest outflow streak on record, with selling accelerating after BTC's failed breakout above its 200-day moving average.