The NASDAQ has fallen more than 10% in Q4 2026, while the Russell 2000 is down about 11% to 12%, the Dow Jones about 7%, and the S&P 500 about 4%. The strategist says the correction remains underway and sees a possible parallel with 2018, when rallies interrupted but did not prevent further declines.
Why it matters
The argument rests partly on a recurring midterm-year pattern. The speaker points to corrections in 2014, 2018 and 2022, and says 2026 already had an approximately 13% early-year decline before the current selloff. The comparison is historical, not a guarantee that markets will follow the same path.
The strategist also links falling long-term yields to growth fears, rather than assuming lower yields automatically support risk assets. Geopolitical uncertainty around the war in Iran, oil prices and the approaching US midterms are cited as additional sources of volatility. The speaker says repeated headlines suggesting an imminent deal could eventually lose credibility with investors.
Market impact
The S&P 500 has slipped below its 50-day moving average and is near its bull-market support band. The strategist expects it could test the 200-day moving average, cited at around 7,300, while cautioning that interim rallies remain possible. The Russell is described as potentially at a first-drop bounce before another leg lower, though that remains the speaker's view rather than a confirmed market pattern.
The near-term outlook is therefore risk-off, but the speaker also expects a low to form within the next couple of months, followed by a bounce. The discussion draws a comparison with Bitcoin's seasonal selloff expectations, but offers no specific BTC price forecast. Investors are left watching whether the S&P joins the sharper declines already seen elsewhere, and whether oil or political developments change the outlook.
Frequently asked questions
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How much have major US indexes fallen in the Q4 2026 selloff?
The NASDAQ is down more than 10%, the Russell 2000 about 11% to 12%, the Dow about 7%, and the S&P 500 about 4%, according to the discussion.
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Why does the strategist compare the current correction with 2018?
The speaker sees a similar pattern of declines interrupted by rallies, followed by renewed selling. The comparison is a historical analogy, not a certainty about what comes next.
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Why might falling long-term yields weigh on risk assets?
The strategist says falling yields can reflect fears of weaker growth. In that setting, lower yields do not necessarily provide support for risk assets.
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What level does the strategist identify as a possible S&P 500 test?
The discussion cites the S&P 500's 200-day moving average at around 7,300 as a possible test, after the index fell below its 50-day average.
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Which events does the speaker say could add volatility to markets?
The speaker points to the war in Iran, oil prices and the approaching US midterms, alongside uncertainty about repeated reports of a possible deal.
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