Oil Slides Below $100 as US-Iran Deal Optimism Grows — Can Bitcoin Follow the S&P 500 Higher?

Brent crude has fallen below $100 per barrel as markets begin pricing in a potential US-Iran agreement that could include a ceasefire and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz — a waterway through which nearly 20% of global oil supply flows. The drop signals a meaningful shift in geopolitical risk pricing across commodities.

US equities have responded in the opposite direction, with the S&P 500 pushing toward all-time highs on the same optimism. The question for crypto investors is whether Bitcoin, which has increasingly tracked risk-on sentiment alongside equities, can sustain a similar move if the macro tailwind holds.

A durable US-Iran deal would remove one of the more persistent geopolitical risk premiums embedded in energy markets, potentially freeing up capital flows into risk assets — including digital ones. The correlation is not guaranteed, but the setup is worth watching.