CoinDesk
Polymarket is lobbying for authorization to operate prediction markets in Japan, with a representative already appointed in-country and a target of government approval by 2030, according to a Bloomberg report Friday citing unnamed people familiar with the matter. Mike Eidlin, head of Japan at crypto exchange Jupiter, is leading the effort, the report said.
The company did not respond to CoinDesk's request for comment. A Polymarket spokesperson told Bloomberg the platform has seen "meaningful organic interest from users in Japan," though the spokesperson did not share specific figures.
Why it matters
Japan runs one of the world's most restrictive gambling regimes — most forms of betting are prohibited under the criminal code, with narrow exceptions for state-sanctioned wagering on horse racing and lotteries. Integrated resorts with casinos have only begun emerging under a tightly regulated framework. Crypto-adjacent firms face a similarly cautious regulator, with licensing and consumer-protection requirements layered on top.
For Polymarket, the Japan push is less a growth experiment than a defensive diversification. The platform has faced legal headwinds in the U.S., and betting on real-world events via blockchain-based futures contracts is the kind of product where Japanese approval would be among the harder regulatory wins available globally. Securing it — even on a five-year horizon — would give the platform a foothold in a market where almost no comparable product is currently legal.
Market impact
Polymarket is not alone in searching for friendlier jurisdictions. India recently cracked down on the platform, going dark domestically, and Kalshi faces similar pressure. The Japan appointment signals Polymarket is treating geographic expansion as the primary lever for unlocking volume rather than product expansion in its existing markets. Watch for whether Jupiter's local exchange license and regulatory relationships can be leveraged to compress the 2030 timeline, and whether rival platforms follow with their own Japan applications before any approval window opens.
Frequently asked questions
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Who is leading Polymarket's Japan expansion?
Mike Eidlin, head of Japan at crypto exchange Jupiter, is leading the lobbying effort, according to Bloomberg. The appointment leverages Jupiter's existing Japanese regulatory relationships rather than building from scratch.
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Why is Polymarket targeting Japan specifically?
The platform faces legal scrutiny in the US and India recently forced it dark. Japan offers a market with meaningful organic interest from users but no comparable legal prediction-market product, making regulatory approval a hard-fought structural win.
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What are Polymarket's prediction markets?
Polymarket lets users bet on the outcomes of real-world events through blockchain-based futures contracts. The platform operates without a traditional brokerage license in most jurisdictions.
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When does Polymarket expect Japanese approval?
Polymarket is targeting government approval by 2030, per Bloomberg citing people familiar with the matter. The five-year horizon is a positioning statement given Japan's restrictive gambling laws.
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How strict are Japan's gambling and crypto regulations?
Most betting is prohibited under Japan's criminal code, with narrow exceptions for state-sanctioned horse racing and lotteries. Casinos are only beginning to emerge under a tightly regulated framework. Crypto firms face licensing and consumer-protection requirements layered on top.
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