Polymarket's 98% Win-Rate Scandal: Congress Moves to Ban War Bets as National Security Alarm Bells Ring!

Bubblemaps co-founder Nicolas Vaiman and his team have uncovered 80 bets on Polymarket with a 98% win rate on U.S. military actions against Iran — a statistical impossibility that points squarely to insider trading. Nine connected accounts made over $2.4 million betting almost exclusively on U.S. military operations, placing high-conviction positions days before the Feb. 28 surprise strikes on Iran, the removal of its supreme leader, and a ceasefire announcement.

The national security dimension is what's driving Washington's response. Vaiman warned that U.S. adversaries can read the same onchain patterns: "The issue here is they can make war plans accordingly. This could potentially expose the lives of many people." He also flagged a darker manipulation risk — a government could intentionally place bets to create false signals and mislead enemies. "Prediction markets are intelligence…