Into The Cryptoverse's Benjamin Cowen argues Bitcoin is still mid-bear-market, with the tell sitting in stablecoin dominance rather than the BTC chart. Four months ago, with stablecoin dominance around 8.5% and Bitcoin near $91K, he flagged what he calls "an unfortunate pattern" — a multi-year base in USDT plus USDC dominance that, in his reading, broke out, backtested the breakout level, and is now consolidating under the 21-week EMA the way it did repeatedly during the 2022 bear market.
Why it matters
Cowen's framework treats stablecoin dominance as a risk-on / risk-off proxy: capital that leaves BTC parks in stablecoins, and a structural break higher in that pair usually means the bear market is not over. He points to the March 2022, August 2022, and October 2022 instances where stablecoin dominance dipped just below its 21-week EMA before reversing higher, each one coinciding with a Bitcoin low. Bitcoin itself, he notes, just got rejected at the 200-day moving average — the same level that capped BTC in 2018 and 2022 — which lines up with stablecoin dominance sweeping below the 21-week EMA exactly as it did in prior cycle bottoms. Excluding stablecoins, Bitcoin dominance is still grinding higher, which he reads as capital rotating BTC-to-stable rather than BTC-to-alts.
Market impact
The pattern he is tracking labels four legs: A (initial high sweep), B (backtest of the breakout), C (rally), D (a second dip toward the bull-market support band). On his read, stablecoin dominance is currently on leg D, with the 2018 analogue being a February low, an April higher low, a May rejection at the 200-day, and a June sweep below the February low. He is explicit that he does not think the bear market is over, that a June 2026 low would be consistent with the 2018 and 2022 templates, and that the structural call depends on whether stablecoin dominance can durably break back below its 21-week EMA — something it has not done yet. Until that break holds, the framework says expect patience rather than a vertical re-acceleration in BTC.
Frequently asked questions
-
What is the "unfortunate pattern" Benjamin Cowen is tracking in Bitcoin?
Cowen argues stablecoin dominance (USDT + USDC) formed a multi-year base, broke out, backtested the breakout, and is now on a second dip toward the bull-market support band — a four-leg A/B/C/D sequence that historically took years to resolve.
-
Why does stablecoin dominance matter for Bitcoin's outlook?
In Cowen's framework, capital leaving BTC parks in stablecoins. A structural break higher in stablecoin dominance signals the bear market is not over, because money is sitting on the sidelines rather than rotating back into risk assets.
-
Where did Bitcoin just get rejected, and why is that level significant?
Bitcoin was rejected at the 200-day moving average — the same level that capped BTC in 2018 and 2022. Cowen reads that rejection as consistent with prior cycle bear-market tops, not with a new bull leg.
-
What historical analogue is Cowen mapping the current setup to?
He's mapping to 2018: a February low, an April higher low, a May rejection at the 200-day moving average, and then a June sweep below the February low. He notes 2022 followed a similar template.
-
What would invalidate Cowen's bearish call?
Stablecoin dominance would need to durably break back below its 21-week EMA — something it has not done yet in this cycle. Until that break holds, Cowen says the framework still points to more downside rather than a vertical re-acceleration in BTC.
Altcoin Daily
WatcherGuru
CoinTelegraph
Glassnode
CoinDesk
TheBlock