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Standard Chartered now expects the stablecoin market to reach $2 trillion in 2030, two years later than its previous forecast, after supply growth stalled. Supply has stayed between $300 billion and $320 billion over the past 12 months and currently stands near $309 billion, according to the bank’s digital assets research head Geoffrey Kendrick.
Why it matters
Kendrick views the slowdown as cyclical, tied to weak crypto market activity, rather than a structural break. Earlier periods of flat or falling supply were followed by renewed growth when crypto markets recovered. Meanwhile, stablecoin use has continued to rise: raw onchain transfer value hit a monthly record of $19 trillion in May, and average monthly volume has been just under $10 trillion so far this year, up from $4 trillion in 2025.
Average monthly stablecoin velocity has doubled to about 30 times this year from 15 times in 2025. USDT velocity has stayed near seven times, while USDC’s rose to about 80 times from 45 times. Kendrick links the gap to different uses: USDT is more associated with dollar savings in emerging markets, while USDC is used more for payments and financial transactions.
Market impact
Kendrick sees developed-market payments and transactions as the most contested area, with potential challengers including USDG, infrastructure provider M^0, and A+, a planned shared stablecoin network for banks. He says yield capture could shape competition among these models and incumbents.
Regulation remains a risk to the forecast. The GENIUS Act is due to take effect in January 2027, and Kendrick says its implementation, along with whether other countries adopt similar rules, could increase competition from bank-backed and multi-issuer stablecoins. The central tension is rising transaction activity against stalled supply, with policy and issuer competition shaping how quickly the market expands.
Frequently asked questions
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Why did Standard Chartered move its $2T stablecoin forecast to 2030?
The bank extended its timeline by two years after stablecoin supply growth stalled. Supply has remained between $300B and $320B over the past 12 months.
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How did stablecoin transaction activity change despite flat supply?
Onchain transfer value reached a monthly record of $19T in May. Average monthly stablecoin velocity doubled to about 30 times this year from 15 times in 2025.
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Why is USDC velocity higher than USDT velocity?
Kendrick links the difference to use cases: USDT is used more for dollar savings in emerging markets, while USDC is used more for payments and financial transactions.
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Which stablecoin challengers does Kendrick identify?
He names USDG, infrastructure provider M^0, and A+, a planned network that would let banks issue a shared stablecoin.
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How could the GENIUS Act affect stablecoin competition?
The Act is due to take effect in January 2027. Kendrick says its implementation and similar rules in other countries could increase competition from bank-backed and multi-issuer stablecoins.
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