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Standard Chartered's Geoffrey Kendrick said Strategy's disclosure Monday that it sold 32 bitcoin during the last week of May may mark the start of ether outperforming bitcoin, framing the trade as a structural rotation rather than a one-day move. While the 32 BTC sold is a trivial fraction of Strategy's 843,706 BTC holdings, the market reaction was telling: bitcoin fell below $70,000, and the ETH-BTC pair recorded one of its largest upside days on a BTC-down session in the past two years, with only 23 larger ETH-BTC up days on bitcoin down days since the start of 2024. Kendrick is sticking to long-term ether targets of $4,000 by end-2026 and $40,000 by end-2030, citing Ethereum's growing role in stablecoins, tokenised real-world assets and DeFi activity.
Why it matters
Kendrick's read turns on a structural difference between the two treasury-company models. Ether generates roughly 3% in staking yield, which he says gives Ethereum treasury firms "zero need" to ever sell their holdings. Bitcoin treasury firms don't have that cushion, so any disposal — even one as small as 32 BTC — forces a credibility check on the business model. That asymmetry, in his view, is the more durable story than the headline sale. He also reiterated his prior framing that Ethereum's current setup mirrors Amazon during the 2001 dot-com bust: internal metrics improving while price lags. ETH-BTC now sits around 0.028; he sees it climbing to 0.040 by year-end, and said the call stands even if Strategy this week buys a large multiple of the 32 BTC it sold.
Market impact
The mNAV gap is where the trade is most concrete. Kendrick noted that the mNAVs of major Ethereum treasury firms, including Bitmine Immersion and Sharplink, have recently slipped below Strategy's — a level he expects to reverse as the staking-yield advantage is repriced. For the market, the read is that ETH-denominated exposure gets a relative tailwind whenever the bitcoin-treasury model comes under pressure, and that the ETH-BTC ratio is more likely to track on company-fundamental divergence than on broad risk-on / risk-off.
Frequently asked questions
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What did Standard Chartered actually say about Strategy's bitcoin sale?
Geoffrey Kendrick, Standard Chartered's Global Head of Digital Assets Research, said in a Tuesday note that the 32 BTC Strategy disclosed selling in the last week of May may mark the start of ether outperforming bitcoin, calling the market reaction 'telling' even though the sale is tiny.
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Why does a 32-BTC sale matter when Strategy still holds 843,706 BTC?
The dollar amount is trivial, but the sell forced a credibility check on the bitcoin-treasury model. Kendrick argues ETH-treasury firms don't face that test because staked ether yields around 3%, giving them 'zero need' to ever sell their holdings.
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What are Standard Chartered's ether price targets?
Kendrick is sticking to $4,000 for ETH by end-2026 and $40,000 by end-2030, citing Ethereum's growing role in stablecoins, tokenised real-world assets and DeFi activity.
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What does Kendrick expect for the ETH-BTC ratio?
He sees the ratio rising to 0.040 by year-end from around 0.028 currently, and said the call holds even if Strategy quickly buys back a large multiple of the 32 BTC it sold. Monday was one of the largest ETH-BTC up days on a BTC-down day since the start of 2024.
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How does Kendrick frame Ethereum treasury firms vs Strategy?
He expects the mNAVs of major ETH-treasury firms, including Bitmine Immersion and Sharplink, to move back above Strategy's, arguing the staking-yield advantage gives them a structurally cheaper funding model than bitcoin-treasury companies.
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