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TD Cowen's Washington policy team has assessed that a comprehensive crypto market structure bill is unlikely to clear Congress this year, citing a deteriorating political environment as the primary obstacle. The call carries weight: TD Cowen's analysts have a strong track record reading legislative timelines on Capitol Hill, and their pessimism reflects the broader gridlock that has stalled financial regulation across the board.
The assessment lands at a sensitive moment for the industry. Crypto firms and lobbyists have spent heavily on legislative access since the 2024 election cycle, banking on a friendlier Congress to deliver clarity on token classification, exchange oversight, and stablecoin frameworks. A prolonged delay pushes those structural questions into 2026 at the earliest — an election year that historically makes controversial financial legislation even harder to move.
Frequently asked questions
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What specific factors contribute to the pessimism about the crypto bill's passage?
The primary obstacle is a deteriorating political environment, which has led to broader gridlock on financial regulation in Congress.
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How might the delay in passing the crypto bill affect the industry?
A prolonged delay could push critical structural questions regarding token classification and exchange oversight into 2026, complicating the legislative process during an election year.
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