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🔥BULLISH

Trump Waives Russia Tariffs Before Oct. 18 Oil Trigger

The waiver removes one potential energy-inflation shock, but its open-ended status makes future policy decisions the next market trigger for Bitcoin and broader risk assets.

Trump Waives Russia Tariffs Before Oct. 18 Oil Trigger
Trump Waives Russia Tariffs Before Oct. 18 Oil Trigger
Trump Waives Russia Tariffs Before Oct. 18 Oil Trigger
Trump Waives Russia Tariffs Before Oct. 18 Oil Trigger

President Donald Trump waived new Russia-linked duties in an October 16 order before the October 18 condition for targeting countries that make new Russian-energy purchases. The order had specified additional duties of 500% on Russian goods and 100% on goods from two groups tied to Russian energy purchases and sanctions-evasion facilitation. The waivers have no fixed expiry.

Why it matters

The move removes one potential source of tariff and energy-inflation pressure just as markets are watching the effect of trade policy on financing conditions. The order implements the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026, but it does not erase earlier Russia-related measures. Sanctions and executive-order actions within the order's specified scope remain in place.

The order names no countries in either targeted group. It directs the US trade representative and other officials to monitor Russian energy purchases and sanctions-evasion facilitation, including circumstances that could justify changing the waivers. That leaves future decisions by the president or secretary of state as the key policy variable.

Market impact

For Bitcoin, the relevant channel runs through inflation and financial conditions. Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said on October 8 that elevated energy costs and threatened tariffs remained inflation pressures, and that further rate increases could follow if incoming data supported that view.

BIS Working Paper 1219 found that US monetary-policy tightening weakened crypto prices and reduced stablecoin market capitalization while increasing prime money-market fund assets. Keeping the new duties waived could limit one additional shock to energy prices, inflation expectations and funding costs, but renewed trade pressure would revive that risk. Investors will be watching both the waiver status and the path of energy prices.

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Frequently asked questions

  1. What did Trump's October 16 order waive?

    It waived new Russia-linked duties that had been specified for Russian goods and goods tied to certain Russian-energy purchases and sanctions-evasion facilitation.

  2. What tariff rates were included in the order?

    The order specified additional duties of 500% on Russian goods and 100% on goods from two targeted groups linked to Russian energy purchases and sanctions evasion.

  3. Does the waiver have a fixed expiration date?

    No. The waivers have no fixed expiry and remain effective until the president or secretary of state determines that further action is appropriate.

  4. Do earlier Russia-related sanctions remain active?

    Yes. Earlier sanctions and executive-order measures within the order's specified scope remain in place.

  5. Why could the waiver matter for Bitcoin?

    Keeping the duties waived could limit an additional energy-inflation shock and reduce one potential source of financing pressure. Tighter US monetary policy has historically weakened crypto prices and stablecoin capitalization.

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