US Strikes Near Hormuz Turn Bitcoin's Ceasefire Relief Into…

A 60-day US-Iran ceasefire extension offered Bitcoin a temporary reprieve, but fresh US military strikes targeting missile sites and mine-laying boats in southern Iran have reframed the trade. CENTCOM described the action as defensive and said restraint remains in place, keeping the diplomatic track technically alive — but Hormuz is now an active military-risk zone, not a resolved shipping corridor.

The macro math is unforgiving. EIA data show 20.9 million barrels per day moved through Hormuz in the first half of 2025 — roughly 20% of global petroleum consumption. Recent tanker crossings have fallen far below the pre-war norm of 125–140 daily passages. Brent can drop on a diplomatic headline within hours; normalizing physical flows takes months, and that is the timeline the Federal Reserve weighs, not the spot price.

Bank of America now expects the Fed on hold through all of 2026.