CoinDesk
USDT volume on Mercado Bitcoin jumped nearly 800% on Brazil's election day from the previous Sunday, while bitcoin volume surged 865%. Corporate accounts generated 78% of the exchange's trading as companies sought to hedge currency risk while traditional markets were closed. Binance's USDT/BRL market tripled, even as the global BTC/USDT pair fell.
Why it matters
The rush showed how Brazilian companies used dollar-pegged stablecoins as an immediate treasury hedge during a politically uncertain market. Mercado Bitcoin research analyst Pedro Fontes said stablecoins such as USDT and USDC offer a simple way to dollarize part of a company's assets, including through smaller transactions.
The election result challenged expectations that Flávio Bolsonaro would win after prediction markets had placed him at roughly an 80% favorite. Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's victory raised concerns about higher social spending, increased debt and limited room for tax increases. Stronger opposition in Congress could further complicate efforts to address Brazil's fiscal pressures.
Market impact
The concern translated into a sharp repricing. The Ibovespa fell 14% the following Monday, its worst session since 2020, while the dollar gained more than 8% against the real, its largest daily rise since 1999. Bitcoin gained 9.4% against the real but slipped 0.2% against USDT, pointing to a currency move rather than a broad crypto rally.
Trading data across 10 venues showed USDT turnover against the real up 150% and USDC turnover up 318% from the prior Sunday. On Monday, combined USDT and USDC turnover reached 1.84 billion reais, or $350 million, up 65% week over week, while bitcoin trading rose more than ninefold to 1,336 BTC. The episode puts stablecoin liquidity on the radar for corporate treasury desks in markets where election risk can quickly become currency risk.
Frequently asked questions
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What share of Mercado Bitcoin's election-day trading came from companies?
Corporate accounts generated 78% of Mercado Bitcoin's trading, while retail customers accounted for 22%.
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How did Brazil's election affect the Ibovespa and the real?
The Ibovespa fell 14% the following Monday, while the dollar gained more than 8% against the real.
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Why did Brazilian companies use USDT and USDC?
Companies used the dollar-pegged stablecoins to hedge currency risk and dollarize part of their assets while traditional markets were closed.
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Did Bitcoin rise against both the real and USDT?
No. Bitcoin gained 9.4% against the real but slipped 0.2% against USDT, consistent with a repricing of Brazil's currency.
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How large was stablecoin trading across Brazilian venues?
Combined USDT and USDC turnover reached 1.84 billion reais, or $350 million, on Monday, up 65% from the previous week.
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