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The print undershot consensus across both headline and core, but the analyst argues the tape is tracking the 2018 cycle template rather than repricing for cuts.
July has historically delivered a single-digit-percent bounce inside midterm-year weakness, and Bitcoin just ripped off the early-July low, but 2018 and 2022 show those gains typically get handed…
The August recess deadline turns a still-pending market-structure bill into a calendar problem: every week of inaction now means weeks more of the SEC-CFTC turf war the bill was written to end.
A trader mapping crypto to the business cycle sees the post-QT normalization dip, 200+ days long, lining up with the 189-day setup that preceded the 2019 reversal, and a Russell 2000 breakout that…
The market-structure bill hands spot crypto oversight to the CFTC, but a 21.5% FTE shortfall means the agency has to build a regulatory machine before it can run one.
Back-to-back macro prints — inflation first, then the rate path — will likely set the volatility regime for BTC and the rest of risk into mid-June.
Benjamin Cowen
WatcherGuru
Crypto Capital Venture
CryptoSlate
Crypto News