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The print undershot consensus across both headline and core, but the analyst argues the tape is tracking the 2018 cycle template rather than repricing for cuts.
History says the Q3 window of weakness arrives next. The monthly-return tape and the 10-year yield already suggest August and September carry the asymmetric downside risk.
Beyond the macro calendar, TON's $54M unlock and a stacked slate of DAO votes add on-chain friction, while IREN's earnings put crypto-mining equity in focus.
July has historically delivered a single-digit-percent bounce inside midterm-year weakness, and Bitcoin just ripped off the early-July low, but 2018 and 2022 show those gains typically get handed…
The August recess deadline turns a still-pending market-structure bill into a calendar problem: every week of inaction now means weeks more of the SEC-CFTC turf war the bill was written to end.
A trader mapping crypto to the business cycle sees the post-QT normalization dip, 200+ days long, lining up with the 189-day setup that preceded the 2019 reversal, and a Russell 2000 breakout that…
The market-structure bill hands spot crypto oversight to the CFTC, but a 21.5% FTE shortfall means the agency has to build a regulatory machine before it can run one.
Benjamin Cowen
CoinDesk
WatcherGuru
Crypto Capital Venture
CryptoSlate